NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7626d2f5eaf906bc7c819cf9b03644aaf655c195fcb1305f083f263b77adba6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 48c | 9,162$4,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,764.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Warriors | 52c | 6,071$3,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,156.73 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Heat | 49c | 5,580$2,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,845.59 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Warriors | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Warriors | 51c | 4,976$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.83 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Heat | 49c | 3,898$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.96 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat | 48c | 2,066$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.25 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Warriors | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Heat | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Heat | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 46c | 997.5$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.1 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 50c | 858.31$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.74 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Warriors | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 54c | 661$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 48c | 464.43$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.51 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Heat | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c72…8b8bbacked Heat | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Heat | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 48c | 395$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…2974backed Warriors | 52c | 375$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 173 | 31.8%55 W · 118 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 48c | 250.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Heat | 52c | 135.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…c387backed Heat | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 204 | 54.9%112 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Heat | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5962backed Warriors | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Warriors | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 48c | 52.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Warriors | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Warriors | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Heat | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Heat | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…5916backed Warriors | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Warriors | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heat | 40c | 26.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Warriors | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Heat | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Warriors | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…f1b0backed Warriors | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa798…4240backed Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Heat (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
- Warriors vs. HeatHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.