NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c01ce47973369d93f7baae5f31583941b87644f7e7d7e97f74aac271d555380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Over | 48c | 20,143$9,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,668.64 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 52c | 11,755$6,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,642.4 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 52c | 6,731$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,230.77 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 2,963$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 52c | 2,056$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.16 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 550.17$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.66 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 51c | 444$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Over | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 46c | 222.22$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…2348backed Over | 53c | 135.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…6bc8backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5962backed Under | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 52c | 34.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 48c | 34.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Heat (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
- Warriors vs. HeatHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.