NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x884f4d3c5955229ab4134f2dc87a7c2b39f892b0ce0e68b45a101c289a7eecd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Under | 50c | 22,200$11,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,100 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 18,260$8,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,312.6 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 4,665$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 50c | 4,500$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 1,961$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.78 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…e447backed Under | 50c | 1,773$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 1,000$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.33 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 50c | 990.2$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.1 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 49c | 444$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 143.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 25c | 66.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3598backed Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Under | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb60f…1ab0backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Heat (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
- Warriors vs. HeatHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.