TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Heat: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Warriors, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,359
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,359 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Warriors8c1,000$80 inLost-$8020034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Heat63c424$267 inWon+$156.888151.9%42 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9773…67e8backed Heat63c276$174 inWon+$102.127753.2%41 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Warriors9c250$23 inLost-$22.52,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5931…08cbbacked Warriors35c104$36 inLost-$35.92846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Warriors17c100$17 inLost-$1763427.3%173 W · 461 L-19.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x279b…7d84backed Warriors37c99$37 inLost-$36.632552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfa9…7097backed Warriors37c96$36 inLost-$35.523834.2%13 W · 25 L-6.6wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-35.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xc61d…ca38backed Warriors37c85$31 inLost-$31.452347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51bd…bc56backed Warriors37c83$31 inLost-$30.713652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Heat69c83$57 inWon+$25.737162%44 W · 27 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Warriors27c82.19$22 inLost-$22.191,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73c5…4997backed Warriors37c71$26 inLost-$26.272937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b80…8e56backed Warriors37c71$26 inLost-$26.272850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacac…bd06backed Warriors37c67$25 inLost-$24.793138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x143d…5bc4backed Warriors37c67$25 inLost-$24.795843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Heat73c54.79$40 inWon+$14.7984957.6%489 W · 360 L-52.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Warriors20c50$10 inLost-$1057444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat61c30$18 inWon+$11.75,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked Warriors39c30$12 inLost-$11.76844.1%30 W · 38 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Heat65c27.86$18 inWon+$9.8848347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec71…fc6fbacked Heat73c27.4$20 inWon+$7.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat69c25$17 inWon+$7.753,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.