NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8911448edb85662c492c9620d9a151efe95c729778ca54823cfd7569c91d2765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 54c | 11,808$6,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,337.65 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 6,510$3,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,493.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 5,477$2,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,868.64 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 45c | 3,528$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.56 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 44c | 1,241$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Under | 49c | 1,010$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.2 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 1,002$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.02 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 236 | 44.1%104 W · 132 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 44c | 965$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.4 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 837$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.61 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 46c | 761$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.94 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 671.2$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.32 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 656.46$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.74 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 55c | 560$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Under | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 255$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 45c | 189.74$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…5366backed Over | 53c | 120.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 47c | 99.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 44c | 86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 51c | 58.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 54c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Over | 57c | 52.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…736ebacked Over | 55c | 42.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Over | 57c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…7b1ebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…49edbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Over | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…14fbbacked Over | 53c | 28.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07c3…5fbebacked Under | 49c | 27.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e4…5364backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0396…0a23backed Over | 53c | 25.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…2556backed Over | 53c | 24.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc9…9813backed Under | 49c | 22.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4870…2534backed Under | 49c | 22.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…855bbacked Over | 53c | 22.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c9…eb72backed Under | 49c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb298…c5a4backed Over | 53c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…0454backed Under | 49c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.35per pick | 57cpaid | +64%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Heat (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
- Warriors vs. HeatHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.