Fifa International · resolved market
Will Italy win on 2025-10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15dd8d248404d9b70f9ee58f4e85f09fa22cc39c06338ae482053789e0b595bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 18c | 30,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 270 | 39.6%107 W · 163 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 18c | 25,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 16c | 9,336$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.35 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d2…59f7backed No | 18c | 8,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 18c | 7,667$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 19c | 6,775$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.95 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 16c | 5,803$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.46 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 16c | 4,711$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.8 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed No | 15c | 3,571$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 17c | 2,050$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.47 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 17c | 1,743$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.55 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c3…eccfbacked No | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed No | 18c | 1,011$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…f0e7backed No | 17c | 882.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 17c | 731.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.44 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 74c | 609.12$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.12 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 16c | 599.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Yes | 69c | 506$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…79ebbacked No | 18c | 433.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 17c | 414.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 227 | 49.3%112 W · 115 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 16c | 394.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 19c | 374.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed No | 23c | 358.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 73c | 350$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 326.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 12c | 302.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed No | 20c | 282$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…8714backed Yes | 72c | 266.64$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…320abacked No | 18c | 216.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…8e6bbacked Yes | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 75c | 192.32$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 263 | 54.8%144 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 18c | 166.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…95b2backed No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebb…593dbacked No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed No | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 24c | 103.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…84ddbacked Yes | 69c | 88.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…6c7fbacked No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +238.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…95a6backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 77c | 62.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…4d7abacked Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…66afbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ed7dbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…8dc7backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…4127backed Yes | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy win on 2025-10-14?this page
- Will Israel win on 2025-10-14?No won
- Will Italy vs. Israel end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.