TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

D4vd arrested by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,203 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8c0…849ebacked Yes75c3,956$2,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,862$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.494629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes14c2,747$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.14300%0 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No62c2,466$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.731070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No55c1,958$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.864461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x57f6…3aefbacked No17c1,804$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+476%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbea…7662backed Yes78c1,518$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7208…ff75backed Yes68c1,450$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No57c1,316$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.732927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes36c1,250$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe70c…6112backed No62c1,216$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5e…450ebacked No45c999.51$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.62742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c8…bc64backed No77c962.31$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes17c811.77$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.86728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1bb…3dd7backed No47c808.32$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8be9…09fcbacked No65c757.01$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8db…c797backed No61c738.12$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba9d…9e71backed Yes74c700.42$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd782…6a24backed Yes28c699.99$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c632.32$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.28180%0 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes21c627.24$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.85825.9%15 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c618.44$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22716334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed Yes54c618.29$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.03425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5449…b041backed Yes18c572.36$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes44c499.99$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes58c494.87$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe674…ff19backed Yes58c473.68$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf04f…bb1ebacked Yes20c409.91$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No63c400$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes44c379.67$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+75.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No68c360.67$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6914938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x427c…2da3backed No14c350.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+600.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f4…447cbacked No36c323.81$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+181.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e1…8f7ebacked No80c304.89$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.61771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes73c280$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.043026.7%8 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e9b…511dbacked Yes39c257.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes44c241.86$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7124732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No63c225.92$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.678342.2%35 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes9c220.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No40c220$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.44100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+84.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes38c210.82$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eea…2250backed No24c208.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c47…5a56backed Yes12c203.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed No20c200$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.24911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53b…d12cbacked Yes10c193.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No15c190$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.151353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+48.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No51c184.32$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.72055%11 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c178.74$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.722640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a05…18e3backed Yes28c176.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7573…ab5fbacked Yes37c175.94$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…f6d8backed No47c173.94$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked No31c162.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.881656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed No25c160.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+301.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes7c155.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.481442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No72c149.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes70c145.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.75922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x681b…bf35backed No69c143.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.973100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No72c138.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.84757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0268…9447backed No30c133.04$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+232.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes30c130.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.96100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed No60c129.76$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.953100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+155.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3868…6ba8backed Yes13c125$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes20c118.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.892433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7a8…39f9backed Yes44c113.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ea…5799backed Yes77c109.56$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.85450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes74c104.32$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c94…31bfbacked Yes37c104.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf737…9f0dbacked No61c100.56$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.65580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0937…5c4cbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-84.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed No22c99.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+54.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfceb…37dabacked No40c99.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No74c97$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.014946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9fda…dcc5backed No60c96.77$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No42c95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.11910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…55b8backed Yes44c91.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes20c90$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.736240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d1…5fbbbacked No25c90$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71a6…6fa0backed No56c88.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed No59c84.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b28…0d9abacked No68c83.15$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bec…d4ecbacked Yes61c81.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fe…771cbacked Yes50c81.09$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbc8…862ebacked No45c79.7$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca90…2badbacked Yes39c76.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes31c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.591250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81b6…9c1fbacked No69c72.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aba…7442backed No56c71.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f78…37b3backed Yes29c68.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77df…8869backed No41c64.29$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa22…21dcbacked Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0daa…d05abacked No60c56.13$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcfd…69edbacked No25c55.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+301.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes25c53.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.33342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a1…d308backed Yes79c51.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Yes41c51.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.93333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked No71c49.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f40…6e9ebacked No41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.78450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x271b…7b14backed No60c48.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes46c42.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.397222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.