Fifa International · resolved market
Will Liechtenstein vs. Wales end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f0633143c0fe39c00e791e5056e8099d87dd66aed4abe57071b151c98a7198f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,836$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 112 | 17%19 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…e48fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,061$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8605…750fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,918$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 5c | 2,304$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,447$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,394$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes | 12c | 1,327$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 11c | 1,306$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.27 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 4c | 1,004$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…a17bbacked Yes | 3c | 886$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 11c | 884.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Yes | 3c | 866.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 6c | 850$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 3c | 781$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 4c | 769.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…a807backed Yes | 3c | 740$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +919.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Yes | 13c | 694.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Yes | 5c | 684.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Yes | 4c | 586.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 11c | 556.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 4c | 448$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 3c | 445.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 18c | 420$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…a6e7backed Yes | 3c | 417.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 4c | 405$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…b699backed Yes | 4c | 399.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…3e38backed Yes | 6c | 346.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcd…9293backed Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 5c | 224.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c7…7203backed Yes | 5c | 211$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 6c | 178.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…35f8backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 17c | 129.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c5…3c32backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liechtenstein vs. Wales end in a draw?this page
- Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-11-15?No won
- Will Wales win on 2025-11-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.