Fifa International · resolved market
Will Wales win on 2025-11-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1979b18e3faafb6b01b4a0a96d39eea928d99c34407920e23e1e6049efaf54ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $289,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $317,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 5c | 100,000$4,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,750 | 270 | 39.6%107 W · 163 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 3c | 14,263$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.78 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 12c | 7,621$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.44 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 1c | 5,076$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 5c | 4,788$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed No | 5c | 4,223$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.38 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 5c | 2,940$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 5c | 2,894$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 7c | 1,744$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed No | 4c | 1,487$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 2c | 1,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed No | 4c | 999.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 385 | 26.8%103 W · 282 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 996.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 4c | 906.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 163 | 31.9%52 W · 111 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 10c | 888.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No | 5c | 816.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 3c | 726$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 4c | 725.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 169 | 25.4%43 W · 126 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 5c | 649$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 14c | 445.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 11c | 364.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked No | 5c | 310.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 6c | 298$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 9c | 293$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 5c | 288$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…9ff3backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 13c | 278.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 8c | 275.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked No | 5c | 242.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 6c | 181$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…2d71backed No | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 12c | 161.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked No | 21c | 142.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wales win on 2025-11-15?this page
- Will Liechtenstein vs. Wales end in a draw?No won
- Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-11-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.