Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will PAOK win on 2025-10-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2262adf3357e0a8e0903f1401c9218599d0e7ba796081ded2a86f6ece4fb87cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 37c | 4,528$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.12 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 78c | 3,907$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.04 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 17c | 3,050$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.23 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 63c | 3,030$1,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.21 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 16c | 2,495$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.21 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 19c | 1,579$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 18c | 1,050$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.95 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…4347backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 18c | 995.89$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.31 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…be77backed Yes | 17c | 883.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Yes | 28c | 456.29$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1257…d615backed Yes | 16c | 363.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 61c | 295.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 40c | 289.48$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 17c | 285.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…3e1fbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…6307backed Yes | 16c | 248.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed Yes | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 60c | 200.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 21c | 197$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301d…05f2backed Yes | 16c | 152.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 40c | 147.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 104.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 18c | 98.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked Yes | 36c | 69.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…2accbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 54c | 54.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 71c | 25.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PAOK win on 2025-10-02?this page
- Will Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK end in a draw?No won
- Will Celta de Vigo win on 2025-10-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.