Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Celta de Vigo win on 2025-10-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9975d441190b7a04b8f8386fc76b6df13836c1497d71001656ea914586c09076
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 53c | 2,251$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.36 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 46c | 1,408$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.77 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 39c | 1,341$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.72 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked No | 40c | 1,328$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 48c | 1,136$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.32 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 920$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.75 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 20c | 866.7$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…7188backed No | 42c | 839.94$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 836.91$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.04 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 57c | 775.79$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.59 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 43c | 751.26$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.39 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Yes | 58c | 650.19$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 56c | 597.91$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.08 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…b5c3backed No | 44c | 580$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes | 61c | 536.66$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 40c | 375.08$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.69 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 60c | 333.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No | 73c | 247.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 27c | 208.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…8507backed No | 44c | 194.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…7c96backed Yes | 58c | 194.05$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 33c | 192.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked No | 12c | 179.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 46c | 175.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 58c | 170.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked No | 40c | 159.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 42c | 141.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 58c | 105.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed No | 46c | 92.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 41c | 83.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 45c | 68.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 43c | 51.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed No | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 42c | 47.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…1733backed Yes | 62c | 45.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 62c | 43.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…08a6backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x642f…31fcbacked No | 41c | 40.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked No | 42c | 40.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bf…cf2bbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 42c | 36.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…c102backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…8dc7backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes | 61c | 31.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…8675backed No | 42c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ac…82d2backed Yes | 57c | 29.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 54c | 29.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…16bcbacked No | 44c | 27.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…c38fbacked Yes | 63c | 19.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Celta de Vigo win on 2025-10-02?this page
- Will Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK end in a draw?No won
- Will PAOK win on 2025-10-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.