Serie A · resolved market
Will Udinese win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x937f1fcdae9aa3467de19aee7d8d1fab911b7f4199492eb30667eb63ff193bb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $248,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $248,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 19c | 227,741$42,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,198.25 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 80c | 40,395$32,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,079.06 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…a39cbacked Yes | 19c | 8,194$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 7c | 3,656$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.2 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 80c | 1,031$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.25 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 1c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 20c | 757.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…03c4backed Yes | 4c | 460$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 20c | 440.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 80c | 332.15$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 20c | 302.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 7c | 286.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…4446backed Yes | 20c | 282.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 79c | 216.33$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 10c | 211.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 19c | 209.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 21c | 152.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…213ebacked No | 80c | 132.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…6445backed No | 80c | 125.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2a…2280backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa615…1bd5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bd…3e91backed No | 80c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Udinese win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-20?Yes won
- Will Udinese vs. AC Milan end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.