Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Basel win on 2025-10-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed1fc16c1df1267a1da15c4fc18759922d7e44e14b0143e7a7ebf2f3af946579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 46c | 3,415$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.5 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 28c | 2,551$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.59 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 37c | 2,439$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 43c | 2,292$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.06 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 42c | 1,379$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.77 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 73c | 1,333$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.62 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 57c | 870.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 38c | 844.46$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.41 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…6525backed Yes | 53c | 722.58$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Yes | 50c | 527.43$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.72 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed No | 50c | 508$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 72c | 499.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 74c | 499.98$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.98 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed No | 47c | 425.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.02 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 51c | 363.98$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.88 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 44c | 317$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.52 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Yes | 53c | 298.08$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…51f4backed No | 49c | 269.39$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 72c | 232.79$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.61 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 49c | 204.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 71c | 177.78$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 25c | 160.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…2accbacked Yes | 55c | 127.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 26c | 126.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 53c | 109.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…337cbacked Yes | 48c | 102.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…4955backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 26c | 99.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 52c | 81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…bdd5backed Yes | 43c | 68.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…946cbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed No | 51c | 62.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…bdb1backed Yes | 28c | 59.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b6…9d5ebacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…701abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 28c | 45.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Yes | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 47c | 42.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…2649backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 55c | 21.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc334…0e88backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…baa4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Basel win on 2025-10-02?this page
- Will FC Basel vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.