TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Nets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Netsof Pelicans, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,291,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,515,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,291,736 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 765 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Nets62c1,367,806$850,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517,805.895952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Pelicans38c506,921$192,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192,560.7426253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets59c500,653$296,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204,516.6187144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Nets62c376,697$233,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143,383.921752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked Pelicans38c300,000$114,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114,0002552%13 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Pelicans38c250,000$95,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,0006352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Nets58c230,399$133,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,371.7226753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Pelicans27c204,212$55,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,589.751947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+41.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Pelicans37c149,987$55,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,994.9659653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Nets61c126,781$77,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,544.720253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pelicans36c76,926$27,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,967.351,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…1795backed Pelicans39c59,000$23,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,0103839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans38c55,839$21,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,373.52,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Pelicans39c50,000$19,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,699.9951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Pelicans37c45,423$17,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,028.710235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets59c38,488$22,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,893.565,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Pelicans40c30,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Pelicans41c21,801$9,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,024.6936741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Nets59c20,643$12,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,477.6344459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nets60c20,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,0001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Nets56c17,865$9,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,882.472,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Nets56c17,193$9,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,611.8992753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Nets56c16,416$9,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,185.161,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Nets61c16,393$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,393.4434062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Pelicans38c15,387$5,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,847.137557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Nets55c15,092$8,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,791.674748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans38c15,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans38c15,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pelicans38c12,500$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,749.921,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Pelicans43c12,155$5,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,220.8335547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans41c11,925$4,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,856.863,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Pelicans39c11,560$4,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,508.43151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Pelicans40c11,275$4,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,454.3269852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Pelicans41c11,093$4,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,534.5148944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Pelicans4c11,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46022846.1%105 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans42c10,920$4,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,634.012,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Pelicans34c10,451$3,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,550.9917348.6%84 W · 89 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Pelicans38c10,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,80017658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Pelicans40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0002321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Pelicans39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.997640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c15…7a9fbacked Pelicans41c9,900$4,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,059425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pelicans0c9,851$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.428820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Pelicans25c9,046$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.9248448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda8…2fd6backed Pelicans40c9,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8262…2ea2backed Nets61c8,988$5,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,505.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d2…8fd6backed Pelicans40c8,800$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5201050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde69…d481backed Pelicans40c8,300$3,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,321825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-55%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Nets62c8,065$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.522454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nets58c7,818$4,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,319.411,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef4…85cfbacked Pelicans46c7,624$3,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,507250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce24…12a3backed Nets54c7,611$4,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,500.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Nets71c6,774$4,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,975.791,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Pelicans0c6,468$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.78348.8%3 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5b…d88dbacked Nets76c6,466$4,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.91520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6af…2887backed Nets60c6,400$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,560862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab87…e7e3backed Pelicans40c6,246$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b77…10d8backed Nets60c6,200$3,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,480650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b6…efecbacked Nets65c6,181$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.271163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2038…9cb5backed Nets61c6,100$3,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Nets58c6,000$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52044654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fab…3444backed Pelicans42c6,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-73.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Pelicans1c5,812$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.127211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets58c5,720$3,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.44,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc4d…b27fbacked Pelicans40c5,700$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Pelicans37c5,555$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.355925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Pelicans39c5,473$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.3166250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Nets60c5,430$3,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,171.8314254.9%78 W · 64 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea1a…b09fbacked Pelicans40c5,158$2,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Nets60c5,132$3,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052.9336351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x297c…67aabacked Nets61c5,103$3,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Nets60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef4…32a1backed Pelicans41c5,000$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02510041%41 W · 59 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nets58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1001,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3df8…a696backed Nets61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9501145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Pelicans40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9918045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c7…69c9backed Nets60c4,891$2,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Pelicans39c4,840$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.68543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27c4…54bfbacked Pelicans40c4,840$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,93610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Nets72c4,828$3,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.079336.6%34 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x183c…f958backed Nets60c4,800$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bff…5c89backed Nets59c4,651$2,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans19c4,440$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.198,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets59c4,158$2,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.86,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9c…17f3backed Nets59c4,049$2,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.943100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fdc…b772backed Nets56c4,020$2,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Nets75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00016136%58 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Nets54c3,913$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.981,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Nets74c3,726$2,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.757259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb355…60e8backed Nets59c3,638$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pelicans43c3,585$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.442,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Pelicans1c3,575$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.55213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c72…9b30backed Pelicans11c3,540$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-50.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9335…b772backed Nets61c3,500$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3651060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f0…7facbacked Nets61c3,500$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+79.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Nets78c3,394$2,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.655657.1%32 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Pelicans40c3,333$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.1928850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Pelicans29c3,260$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.811834.7%41 W · 77 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Pelicans42c3,222$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.4224847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e8…731cbacked Pelicans41c3,180$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.87255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Pelicans31c3,115$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.8217540.6%71 W · 104 L-0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.