Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd927ecf4e9411796dedee1c6905d4ed41cf887ffc4274bca9582f8effa21062b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,605,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,657,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,605,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 738 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 15c | 153,355$22,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,237.38 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 15c | 106,359$15,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,814.54 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d73…ad14backed Yes | 15c | 97,770$14,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,967.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed No | 74c | 73,058$54,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,862.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 14c | 71,163$9,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,786.91 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 10c | 46,036$4,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,404.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 41,828$7,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,054.33 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba02…0c88backed Yes | 22c | 31,115$6,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,768.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…f233backed Yes | 5c | 25,878$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.22 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 9c | 25,872$2,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,406.01 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 14c | 25,500$3,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,531.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 25,475$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.97 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…c024backed Yes | 15c | 17,990$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,768.19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes | 9c | 17,632$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 14,730$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 21c | 14,160$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,002.06 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 16c | 13,568$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.52 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 0c | 12,101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…8b51backed Yes | 9c | 10,118$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 9,868$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.34 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…882abacked Yes | 10c | 9,780$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…6908backed Yes | 9c | 9,551$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Yes | 17c | 9,081$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 13c | 9,000$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 18c | 8,966$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,627.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 8,899$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.96 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…26f2backed Yes | 15c | 8,878$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 74c | 8,231$6,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.63 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 6c | 8,197$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.36 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 4c | 7,833$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.91 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Yes | 23c | 7,361$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…72bebacked Yes | 6c | 7,237$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 80c | 6,890$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.59 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 16c | 6,500$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…44d5backed Yes | 2c | 6,498$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6a…c011backed Yes | 20c | 6,357$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 73c | 6,000$4,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.78 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…6582backed Yes | 22c | 5,876$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 5c | 5,856$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.57 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 14c | 5,700$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.33 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,633$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.54 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 76c | 5,366$4,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.66 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 5,271$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.21 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…3715backed Yes | 4c | 5,248$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…94a2backed Yes | 16c | 5,110$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Yes | 8c | 5,060$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed No | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d47…8644backed Yes | 18c | 5,000$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…041fbacked No | 73c | 5,000$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed No | 79c | 5,000$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.64 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ed…6609backed Yes | 16c | 4,829$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed No | 80c | 4,613$3,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…e262backed No | 79c | 4,598$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 16c | 4,502$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.35 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef59…4d8dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,488$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 1c | 4,428$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 70c | 4,424$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 4,344$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.17 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 18c | 4,317$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.34 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,294$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,142$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1295…5cfdbacked Yes | 13c | 4,104$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…3f88backed Yes | 25c | 3,977$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 5c | 3,925$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.46 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…cf04backed No | 77c | 3,899$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 74c | 3,894$2,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.99 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 18c | 3,823$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.77 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 3,800$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 23c | 3,779$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.39 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 5c | 3,700$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.52 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 4c | 3,686$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 8c | 3,667$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 3,527$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.52 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x280e…ee59backed Yes | 16c | 3,500$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 18c | 3,400$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 3,387$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.37 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 3,323$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210d…a85cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,318$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 21c | 3,300$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.98 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…b5e5backed Yes | 15c | 3,281$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 13c | 3,261$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.53 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 19c | 3,242$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.6 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Yes | 18c | 3,205$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009a…833bbacked Yes | 16c | 3,190$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 11c | 3,156$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 5c | 3,150$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,077$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a6…2c4ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,943$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fd…0d12backed Yes | 17c | 2,942$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 20c | 2,888$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.33 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…6c63backed Yes | 19c | 2,839$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff49…2f07backed Yes | 3c | 2,789$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4425…40f2backed Yes | 15c | 2,720$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…9319backed Yes | 7c | 2,710$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…1412backed Yes | 17c | 2,700$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef4…3c7ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,637$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 4c | 2,579$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…a2d3backed Yes | 20c | 2,515$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…77c0backed Yes | 33c | 2,402$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.