AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36f21c54a0083af4814555e29931895448de35beb4ffe10de1405cb999d25032
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $732,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $721,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $732,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1191…c092backed Yes | 14c | 221,271$30,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,663.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…c8e2backed Yes | 14c | 91,765$12,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,953.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…2bf6backed Yes | 12c | 17,533$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…0b58backed No | 73c | 15,942$11,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,304.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…090dbacked Yes | 11c | 15,765$1,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…fb0ebacked Yes | 16c | 12,285$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…901abacked Yes | 9c | 12,042$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…3054backed No | 77c | 11,752$9,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…1aeabacked Yes | 1c | 9,764$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 7c | 8,222$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.78 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b0…f2a7backed Yes | 12c | 8,204$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 14c | 7,969$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 4c | 7,005$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.54 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 9c | 6,533$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.94 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 20c | 6,066$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b25…f0d6backed Yes | 14c | 5,651$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb133…c5adbacked Yes | 10c | 5,627$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 11c | 5,132$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.57 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…8a93backed Yes | 4c | 4,788$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…8880backed Yes | 17c | 4,641$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,490$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x627d…cf6bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,462$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9837backed Yes | 14c | 4,392$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…1e82backed Yes | 18c | 3,800$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 11c | 3,636$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 4c | 3,506$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,493$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 3,221$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.82 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…0759backed Yes | 21c | 2,948$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe265…c013backed Yes | 3c | 2,786$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 2c | 2,714$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed Yes | 1c | 2,378$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,369$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked No | 79c | 2,110$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.2 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…224cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,085$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…dd4ebacked No | 79c | 2,000$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcd…5927backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 28c | 1,763$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.84 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8197…5540backed Yes | 13c | 1,738$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 1,689$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.18 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,596$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,527$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75d…ca6bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa296…386cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,425$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…a48dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,420$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b29…8533backed Yes | 4c | 1,374$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 1,341$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,319$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,308$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.03 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0adf…8718backed Yes | 2c | 1,296$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 24c | 1,274$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.16 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150b…261fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,271$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,260$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 11c | 1,078$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 11c | 1,001$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…f5f4backed Yes | 33c | 1,001$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3297…a2c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…3fe5backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc630…fbe4backed Yes | 34c | 931.99$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 14c | 900$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9df…ad80backed Yes | 14c | 800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…d320backed Yes | 8c | 778.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +152%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb02c…3766backed Yes | 7c | 752.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 716.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…7d31backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…db9abacked Yes | 10c | 483.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…f1febacked Yes | 14c | 448.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 17c | 398.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 23c | 386.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0b…a4e3backed Yes | 14c | 369.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…f67dbacked Yes | 14c | 368.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…3ceebacked Yes | 6c | 362.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…3763backed No | 9c | 356.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +175.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 13c | 350$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…2c7cbacked Yes | 11c | 348.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2b…403bbacked Yes | 15c | 338.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 306.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.74 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x42d7…fc69backed Yes | 7c | 293.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…a3dbbacked No | 63c | 285.79$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…6e5cbacked Yes | 11c | 280$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…d42ebacked Yes | 17c | 279.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…6dbabacked Yes | 9c | 277.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 37cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…5323backed Yes | 20c | 248.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…6e24backed Yes | 13c | 246.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5817…9306backed Yes | 11c | 244.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd445…9afcbacked Yes | 12c | 239.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…3036backed Yes | 7c | 213.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…f7a8backed Yes | 16c | 202.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae2…a709backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?this page
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.