AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3105a5b978135f009f7583d77665cd5b9df5afbccc49ef0600ef2eb6795113a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,344,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,135,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,344,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked No | 1c | 179,475$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d7…71d2backed No | 0c | 102,200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e51…9216backed No | 2c | 42,448$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…1924backed No | 2c | 41,299$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…0367backed No | 0c | 36,119$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…172dbacked No | 4c | 35,788$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…c116backed No | 2c | 34,261$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed No | 3c | 33,325$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.57 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b42…3262backed No | 1c | 31,107$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…cb2cbacked No | 2c | 26,616$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…37b6backed No | 2c | 25,886$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…0f89backed No | 4c | 21,168$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6b…1c60backed No | 2c | 19,508$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…a777backed No | 2c | 18,890$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…c092backed No | 30c | 16,926$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…1aeabacked No | 1c | 15,640$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed No | 13c | 14,658$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…db43backed No | 7c | 13,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x627d…cf6bbacked No | 11c | 12,789$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…ecf6backed No | 14c | 11,385$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…9522backed No | 1c | 10,689$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594b…4cb5backed No | 2c | 10,469$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4044…8de5backed No | 3c | 10,000$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed No | 1c | 9,690$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 2c | 9,088$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.33 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked No | 2c | 8,455$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…8a93backed No | 11c | 8,296$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 4c | 8,014$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed No | 4c | 7,224$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…7877backed No | 3c | 7,075$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 1c | 6,520$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…911ebacked No | 8c | 6,505$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d33…d331backed No | 3c | 6,294$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…32c0backed No | 2c | 6,216$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 1c | 5,800$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…1413backed No | 0c | 5,602$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…0b58backed No | 14c | 5,346$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…cdcebacked No | 0c | 5,252$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…eb8ebacked No | 2c | 5,181$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fca…c778backed No | 3c | 4,411$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…eab2backed No | 1c | 4,146$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5e…35dabacked No | 2c | 4,050$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2331backed No | 3c | 3,988$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…a3dbbacked No | 5c | 3,882$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…cb8abacked No | 7c | 3,852$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.39 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…c707backed No | 4c | 3,738$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…9ecbbacked No | 2c | 3,734$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa055…7ffcbacked No | 11c | 3,642$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…e69abacked No | 4c | 3,616$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…2bf6backed No | 17c | 3,462$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.07 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480c…bab6backed No | 1c | 3,438$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 2c | 3,368$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…498cbacked No | 3c | 3,326$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 1c | 3,288$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…841ebacked No | 3c | 3,239$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…c8a5backed No | 3c | 3,184$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d6…dcabbacked No | 1c | 3,180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…e477backed No | 7c | 3,083$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…59b1backed No | 4c | 3,064$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…9b64backed No | 4c | 3,063$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa38…e13abacked No | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No | 6c | 3,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked No | 2c | 2,900$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…dde9backed No | 2c | 2,769$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…13bfbacked No | 12c | 2,578$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…176abacked No | 4c | 2,529$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 7c | 2,529$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…f3b4backed No | 1c | 2,515$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x930c…228fbacked No | 4c | 2,507$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 2,500$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed No | 3c | 2,381$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 13c | 2,343$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.74 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked No | 3c | 2,284$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5097…cc18backed No | 4c | 2,203$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…be27backed No | 3c | 2,165$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccb…9b71backed No | 11c | 2,130$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed No | 3c | 2,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed No | 13c | 1,988$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.3 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…4f9fbacked No | 6c | 1,950$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…4d8bbacked No | 2c | 1,920$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed No | 11c | 1,916$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…7c7cbacked No | 7c | 1,905$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa40…22a1backed No | 6c | 1,888$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2464…c016backed No | 5c | 1,834$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e84…63dcbacked No | 4c | 1,811$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa296…386cbacked No | 15c | 1,800$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…7c68backed No | 3c | 1,794$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…d2b1backed No | 1c | 1,750$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 3c | 1,749$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…fd78backed No | 3c | 1,731$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 4c | 1,700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…cb44backed No | 3c | 1,626$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed No | 4c | 1,593$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…ef1fbacked No | 3c | 1,584$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…f14bbacked No | 13c | 1,574$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…2558backed Yes | 79c | 1,573$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…4ff0backed No | 17c | 1,569$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107f…505cbacked No | 1c | 1,550$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +421.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…2b4bbacked No | 5c | 1,543$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3063…5c31backed No | 2c | 1,538$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?this page
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.