AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8174995bbe1dfc4d0a4c7295194f3fb6814c68745284e1255935f6437148b829
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,437,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,128,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,437,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 6c | 133,102$8,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,420.34 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…998abacked Yes | 5c | 53,805$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 51,469$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.63 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…7d96backed No | 76c | 43,162$32,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,319.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…66a7backed Yes | 5c | 38,593$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6970…684abacked No | 26c | 35,119$9,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,939.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 47c | 34,769$16,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,459.79 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Yes | 9c | 32,134$2,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,758.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa847…e12dbacked Yes | 4c | 28,365$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fb…484ebacked Yes | 38c | 24,019$9,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,183.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked Yes | 9c | 23,979$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes | 4c | 23,599$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd943…195cbacked No | 64c | 21,993$14,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,832.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 20c | 21,179$4,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,196.8 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed Yes | 14c | 19,914$2,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,721.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 15,690$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.67 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…901abacked Yes | 9c | 15,566$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 4c | 14,042$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 5c | 13,278$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.82 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…fb52backed Yes | 2c | 13,093$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 12,993$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.63 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 3c | 12,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…a273backed No | 23c | 11,715$2,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,002.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 16c | 9,113$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.04 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 21c | 8,558$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.42 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 4c | 8,181$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.52 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…40fbbacked Yes | 3c | 7,457$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…f74bbacked Yes | 58c | 7,400$4,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,304 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…4d78backed Yes | 4c | 7,345$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 6c | 7,128$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,946$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.42 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…2bf6backed Yes | 2c | 6,940$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…4e3ebacked Yes | 6c | 6,796$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…b127backed Yes | 2c | 6,763$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba7…ae61backed Yes | 13c | 6,420$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…63f8backed Yes | 5c | 6,210$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 18c | 6,134$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.51 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Yes | 4c | 6,041$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 5,800$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 5,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 1c | 5,438$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 1c | 5,410$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 2c | 5,300$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…46cfbacked Yes | 6c | 5,009$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…b775backed Yes | 5c | 4,672$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…db9abacked Yes | 0c | 4,650$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 2c | 4,625$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ee…0c00backed Yes | 8c | 4,519$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…6e66backed Yes | 1c | 4,307$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,230$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.46 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…21cfbacked Yes | 4c | 4,103$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,095$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,023$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 59c | 3,665$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +195.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…adeabacked Yes | 2c | 3,662$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858f…9b6ebacked Yes | 57c | 3,534$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067a…2a71backed Yes | 3c | 3,394$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…e8acbacked Yes | 1c | 3,344$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 1c | 3,163$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 6c | 3,142$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.98 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788b…046abacked No | 21c | 3,097$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…bd16backed Yes | 24c | 2,885$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…a7d9backed Yes | 3c | 2,877$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d1…7de6backed No | 56c | 2,687$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.23 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…67c1backed Yes | 3c | 2,651$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…a673backed Yes | 0c | 2,629$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes | 4c | 2,620$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…468ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,607$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed Yes | 4c | 2,592$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked Yes | 7c | 2,543$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…013ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,440$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,395$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,264$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.31 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…910bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,257$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f9…791abacked Yes | 4c | 2,222$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 1c | 2,154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 5c | 2,100$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…a8b4backed Yes | 4c | 2,027$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,001$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,000$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.37 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 2c | 1,998$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 1,974$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…4a64backed Yes | 1c | 1,945$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,932$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes | 5c | 1,927$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…057cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,900$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,820$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 1,816$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 2c | 1,668$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 1c | 1,643$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,599$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,565$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…b595backed Yes | 1c | 1,508$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,501$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…e435backed Yes | 70c | 1,495$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?this page
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.