TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0a58…c236

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT2231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$22.84
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+334.8%+$77
Will Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$52.01
Will Wolves vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Wolves vs. Manchester United: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+84.3%+$91.5
Will Chelsea vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$172
Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+170.3%+$189
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+75.4%+$43
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+300%+$75
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Chelsea vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.9
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.5
Will Chelsea vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Will Arsenal vs. West Ham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+200.3%+$124.21
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
All 22 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$18
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$51.76
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$71.5
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.55
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$10.99
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.62
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+237.1%+$52.31
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.16
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+43%+$48.76
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.57
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$29.26
All 14 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.02
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.