Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f5c55f81a6e389a6c49e96b3811e0a0793bc8da00e4f350d526a5494514aff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 57c | 1,024$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.87 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 74c | 785.15$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.72 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 558$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 71c | 398.26$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 5c | 355.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 325.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 302.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 35c | 148.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 73c | 126.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 15c | 124.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 10c | 105.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 19c | 105.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 25c | 96.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 25c | 88.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 21c | 83.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 69c | 83.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 20c | 78.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 74c | 78.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 67c | 71.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 71c | 66.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 66.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 64.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 53.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…fa6abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 27c | 41.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 28c | 37.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 66c | 30.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 30.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…4e14backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 22.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 78c | 13.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.