Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6bd26d38e927f563ff1f4ea72c070e08c07099d6ecb3f9394318f2689d16f11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 78c | 724.3$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 600.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 78c | 461.02$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.9 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 78c | 330$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6615…98b2backed Yes | 77c | 227.22$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 12c | 225.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.96 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 36c | 192$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 39c | 165.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 158.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 59c | 138.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 125.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 97.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 95.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 35c | 86.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 40c | 82.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 68.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 28c | 68.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 31c | 67.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…9156backed Yes | 43c | 64.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 26c | 60.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 61c | 58.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 62c | 54.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 46c | 45.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 43c | 43.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 42.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 38c | 38.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 61c | 38.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 37c | 38.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 37c | 31.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 36c | 30.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 28.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 73c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.