Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f6efbb3eb93e301772b15c1d15e0284ac029c0afe2204e1e42461ab281e58aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 25c | 951.37$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.6 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 856.23$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 37c | 846.87$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.73 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 64c | 750.19$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.64 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 12c | 615.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 5c | 569.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 38c | 408.23$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.36 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 339.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 61c | 294.44$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.61 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 273.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 17c | 259.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.43 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 27c | 232.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.37 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 230$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…638abacked Yes | 41c | 229.72$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 50c | 200.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 39c | 199.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 197.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 57c | 193.61$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 50c | 176.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 19c | 160.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.73 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 23c | 153.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 143.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 139.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 131.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 128.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 39c | 120.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 111.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 17c | 109.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 109.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 66c | 98.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 70c | 97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 92.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 28c | 91.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 14c | 88.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 61c | 81.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 43c | 81.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270f…5e39backed Yes | 37c | 75.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 31c | 74.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…f773backed Yes | 39c | 72.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 35c | 70.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 75c | 69.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 21c | 64.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 60.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 56.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 54c | 53.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 30c | 52.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 34c | 50.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…8f12backed Yes | 22c | 49.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 49.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 60c | 49.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed No | 78c | 48.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 40c | 47.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 39c | 46.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf41backed No | 61c | 43.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 63c | 42.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 42.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 41.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 40.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 68c | 38.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 37.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 65c | 36.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 67c | 34.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 31.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 71c | 31.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 37c | 30.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 70c | 28.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed No | 57c | 25.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 44c | 23.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 64c | 22.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 51c | 22.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 63c | 22.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 62c | 20.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 77c | 20.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 57c | 19.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 70c | 17.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 70c | 16.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 14.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1c…e255backed No | 74c | 13.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.