Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2441c8fd94ee815c5eefd4791a9ea4709c4b48440cb8564b4afa7ecb5fc4181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes | 1c | 1,846$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 502.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…638abacked Yes | 77c | 398.61$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 77c | 345.94$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.3 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 47c | 330.27$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.78 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 72c | 294.15$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 73c | 272.37$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.46 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 255.84$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.61 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 39c | 197.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 26c | 177.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 27c | 174.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed No | 78c | 162.8$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 77c | 151.32$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7983…f3c0backed No | 74c | 138.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 115.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 46c | 114.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 48c | 113.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 27c | 112.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 42c | 108.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 107.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 30c | 103.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 46c | 103.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 32c | 100.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 53c | 88.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 34c | 87.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 86.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 84.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 39c | 82.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 57c | 75.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 74.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked Yes | 20c | 73.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 32c | 73.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 29c | 69.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 44c | 64.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Yes | 29c | 64.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 60.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 27c | 60.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 46c | 59.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 30c | 58.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 58.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 40c | 55.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 34c | 52.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 73c | 52.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf41backed No | 75c | 50.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 45c | 48.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 48.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 56c | 48.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…ae96backed Yes | 49c | 48.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 31c | 48.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 39c | 47.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 47.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 44c | 47.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 45.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 27c | 44.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…758ebacked Yes | 41c | 44.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 44.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 30c | 42.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked No | 56c | 40.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 38.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 58c | 38.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 44c | 38.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 37c | 37.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc9…332abacked No | 78c | 37.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 35.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84aa…e3f4backed No | 61c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 39c | 34.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…f773backed Yes | 37c | 33.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 65c | 32.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 76c | 32.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 44c | 31.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 44c | 31.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 29.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 66c | 29.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 29.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 71c | 27.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 71c | 27.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 51c | 26.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 56c | 25.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 67c | 23.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 70c | 23.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 49c | 21.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…a891backed Yes | 80c | 19.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed Yes | 75c | 18.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…69f5backed No | 70c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +311.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6652…0fc2backed No | 73c | 18.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.