Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bebc80a1dd31a66f52ee77fc81c9db120e5978422412c63cfba918cd9df268f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 26c | 6,616$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,872.49 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 1,113$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 959.13$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 27c | 721.36$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.47 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 699.99$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 22c | 563.94$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 355.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.92 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 279.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.96 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 49c | 267.8$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 266.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed No | 76c | 256.94$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.19 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 69c | 256.51$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.66 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 76c | 255.55$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.28 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 16c | 249.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.9 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 48c | 238.03$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.99 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 77c | 197.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.56 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 18c | 192.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed No | 41c | 185.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 75c | 161.22$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 157.71$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 32c | 157.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 139.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 138.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 136.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.61 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 25c | 129.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 63c | 129.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 120$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 17c | 110.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 68c | 109.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 37c | 105.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 60c | 101.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 74c | 99.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 35c | 95.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 44c | 85.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 30c | 75.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 30c | 74.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 71c | 71.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 69.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 36c | 68.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 68.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 20c | 63.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 47c | 62.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…3cb7backed No | 68c | 56.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 70c | 55.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 51.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 28c | 50.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 21c | 50.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 62c | 48.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…76bebacked Yes | 32c | 46.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 34c | 43.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 66c | 42.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 76c | 38.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 78c | 37.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 47c | 37.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 75c | 33.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 70c | 30.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa945…110fbacked No | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd370…dc49backed Yes | 46c | 28.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 69c | 28.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…c781backed Yes | 70c | 27.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 75c | 26.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed No | 74c | 26.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 25.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 72c | 24.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…8f32backed No | 72c | 23.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 54c | 21.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 66c | 21.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…575abacked No | 65c | 21.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 71c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6652…0fc2backed No | 75c | 16.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e4c2backed No | 79c | 14.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 78c | 14.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.