Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf04a7fdfe59d493d58aec970ceb3dd0b685b1f5fae50ee6dc32114884bb8d0d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,993$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…ea2abacked Yes | 2c | 1,220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 714.08$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 615.08$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.21 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 68c | 597.6$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.74 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 507.38$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 36c | 429.45$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.45 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Yes | 48c | 397.04$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 62c | 390$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed Yes | 42c | 377.18$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 31c | 297.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 287.39$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 37c | 272.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 264.71$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 26c | 261.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 256.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 7c | 241.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 51c | 214.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 54c | 210.42$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.71 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 51c | 205.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 23c | 198.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 192.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 177.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f65…ad34backed Yes | 50c | 171.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…ada9backed Yes | 24c | 170.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 24c | 168.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 167.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 58c | 162.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 33c | 162$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 36c | 157.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 157$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 39c | 151.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 39c | 149.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ab…86b5backed Yes | 26c | 146.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 142.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 34c | 142.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 57c | 138$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 40c | 127.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 33c | 122.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 121.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 51c | 118.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 116.62$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 115.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 68c | 112.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 22c | 108.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 105.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 28c | 100.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 99.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…f773backed Yes | 33c | 98.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…171bbacked Yes | 59c | 97.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 46c | 95.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 29c | 92.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 88.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 27c | 87.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 54c | 87.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 86.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 32c | 86.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed No | 70c | 84.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 50c | 83.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 42c | 79.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…ae96backed Yes | 24c | 76.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 51c | 74.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 74.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 50c | 73.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 72.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 71.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 70.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 61c | 65.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 22c | 63.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 62.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed Yes | 59c | 62.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 61c | 61.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 21c | 59.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 24c | 58.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…130ebacked Yes | 25c | 58.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 70c | 57.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 57.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 57.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 26c | 56.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 73c | 56.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 56.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 55.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 55.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 29c | 54.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 52.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 30c | 51.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked Yes | 59c | 51.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 50.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 29c | 50.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.