Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. West Ham end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07acba46f39797a43646eb1dbb701ff21ae429762f5a232f7aa112582b946caf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 12c | 11,721$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.31 | 99 | 17.2%17 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5196…f570backed Yes | 13c | 10,007$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…97cfbacked Yes | 11c | 4,394$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,961$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.07 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 13c | 1,902$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.68 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,761$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.87 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes | 12c | 857.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed Yes | 7c | 699.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Yes | 16c | 636.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 13c | 600.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 12c | 600$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 13c | 463.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 262 | 29.8%78 W · 184 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 14c | 456.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 204 | 25%51 W · 153 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Yes | 16c | 400$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 13c | 348.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…81f2backed Yes | 13c | 346.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 13c | 249.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 14c | 219.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 11c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…fa51backed Yes | 14c | 162.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…517abacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 12c | 122.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…f0bbbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…862ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…76dfbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90e…30efbacked Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. West Ham end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
- Will West Ham win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.