Premier League · resolved market
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73c731f9536ef7184d834e1efe5172e0653d912febb4b05ff4654df310887d07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Yes | 5c | 15,510$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 6c | 15,064$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.83 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 6c | 12,608$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.36 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes | 5c | 6,270$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,875$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.75 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed Yes | 6c | 5,550$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.17 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 5c | 3,693$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.67 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Yes | 5c | 3,222$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 6c | 3,150$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 103 | 35%36 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 6c | 3,050$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,840$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…d170backed Yes | 5c | 2,730$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…cae5backed Yes | 8c | 2,582$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…49efbacked Yes | 6c | 2,309$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.52 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 3c | 1,670$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 5c | 1,063$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 137 | 27%37 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 6c | 1,053$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 204 | 25%51 W · 153 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd830…7848backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d05…c703backed Yes | 6c | 815.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…81f2backed Yes | 6c | 750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 5c | 723.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 262 | 29.8%78 W · 184 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 5c | 650$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 6c | 616.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 7c | 600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Yes | 6c | 547.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb3…caf3backed Yes | 7c | 512.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Yes | 5c | 501.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f5…1eb3backed Yes | 7c | 499.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 7c | 452.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 5c | 379.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 233 | 25.8%60 W · 173 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…d8b0backed Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4750backed Yes | 8c | 262.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…517abacked Yes | 8c | 257.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 9c | 225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed Yes | 9c | 225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…28a5backed Yes | 5c | 216.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes | 7c | 182.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will West Ham win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Arsenal vs. West Ham end in a draw?No won
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.