Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7d693fab85e4766692e81510a9c58f3d3d6d209f5462dc8c16620df89027819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 25c | 3,418$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.93 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 40c | 1,505$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.68 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 3c | 1,262$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 567.37$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 4c | 459.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 438.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 31c | 427.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 7c | 395.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 386.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 57c | 350.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.85 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 346.95$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 301.37$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 286.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 285.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 8c | 282.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 44c | 275.23$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 55c | 274.07$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.59 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 255.78$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 57c | 243.92$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 235.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 46c | 217.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 77c | 191.47$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 17c | 188.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 56c | 177.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 177.71$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 155.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 20c | 153.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 34c | 141.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…61e2backed Yes | 63c | 133.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 133.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 132.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 37c | 132.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 60c | 124.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 38c | 123.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 117.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 41c | 115.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 41c | 115.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 42c | 112.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 108.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed Yes | 45c | 105.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 45c | 105.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 101.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 36c | 98.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 41c | 97.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 95.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5d…4143backed Yes | 40c | 94.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 92.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 15c | 87.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…45ebbacked No | 35c | 84.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 60c | 81.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 57c | 76.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 68c | 72.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 60c | 67.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 67.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 60c | 62.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 49c | 59.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 61c | 58.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 57.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 41c | 57.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 40c | 56.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 55.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 49c | 54.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 60c | 53.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 62c | 52.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 39c | 52.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 49.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 63c | 48.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…1e2dbacked Yes | 40c | 47.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…b38bbacked Yes | 57c | 47.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 63c | 46.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 41c | 45.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…3432backed No | 63c | 45.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…210cbacked Yes | 42c | 44.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…bb80backed Yes | 43c | 44.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 43c | 43.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 54c | 43.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 66c | 43.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 39c | 40.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 30c | 39.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 63c | 39.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 60c | 39.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 74c | 39.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 64c | 37.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 39c | 37.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 60c | 37.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 64c | 36.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.