Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbae5927a5f5d40f412110fcbd4b9eb64c70cc6e0e4d9bbdfcbecf95d687f20d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa61b…f52ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,051$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,511$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.15 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 817.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 580.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 530.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 7c | 512.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 320.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 4c | 300.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 249.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 12c | 233.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 223.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 78c | 222.96$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 17c | 214.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 193.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 18c | 186.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 179.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 80c | 178.32$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 152.74$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 15c | 142.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 25c | 128.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 126.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 17c | 121.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 11c | 115.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 17c | 100.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…3530backed Yes | 14c | 95.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 95.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 21c | 93.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 79c | 88.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 20c | 81.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 13c | 79.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 15c | 79.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 15c | 77.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 14c | 75.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 75.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 79c | 70.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 20c | 56.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 54.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…bf4bbacked Yes | 20c | 53.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 21c | 47.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 76c | 45.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…e423backed Yes | 27c | 40.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 74c | 39.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 36.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 79c | 35.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 29.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 80c | 29.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 24.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 24.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 75c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 80c | 18.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 80c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 14.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.