Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcff5b129dea5ff9c2f6e14c564e8e20f4842d4ba0c0095c5ebbd006e8c74e4b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 1c | 9,116$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 33c | 1,307$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.47 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 60c | 1,195$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.76 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 63c | 1,115$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.94 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 11c | 892.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 5c | 736.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 61c | 698.48$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.07 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 504.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 7c | 449.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 76c | 438.58$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.38 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 37c | 404.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.01 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked No | 10c | 392.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 26c | 348.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.9 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 322.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 287.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 40c | 276.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.88 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 55c | 270.52$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.03 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 231.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 40c | 222.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 62c | 217.11$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 75c | 207.73$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 67c | 193.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 193.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.27 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 192.01$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 64c | 185.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 8c | 139.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 56c | 127.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed Yes | 41c | 114.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 60c | 110.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 27c | 110.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 110.52$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 108.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 103.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 48c | 99.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 65c | 99.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 98.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 20c | 98.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 41c | 97.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 60c | 96.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 76c | 94.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 93.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 44c | 92.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 39c | 89.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 21c | 87.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 32c | 83.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 35c | 77.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 48c | 74.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 42c | 71.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 68c | 70.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 37c | 67.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 65.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 64.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…61e2backed Yes | 56c | 63.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 62.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 61.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 66c | 60.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 39c | 60.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 66c | 57.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 32c | 55.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 77c | 55.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 55.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 33c | 54.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 53.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 53.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 51.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 49.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 30c | 46.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 28c | 43.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7779…1de9backed No | 69c | 42.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…1d37backed Yes | 67c | 39.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…b176backed Yes | 74c | 39.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…e412backed Yes | 76c | 39.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 78c | 39.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…345dbacked Yes | 50c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 64c | 37.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 39c | 36.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 39c | 36.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 67c | 35.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…bb80backed Yes | 40c | 33.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 32.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 32.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 59c | 30.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…e340backed No | 71c | 30.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 47c | 30.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…76bebacked No | 80c | 29.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 68c | 28.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 27.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 77c | 27.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked No | 52c | 27.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 63c | 26.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.