Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x806eacdf6966622b3bb143fa2128263753a41dcbf36fa7e20cacaaeaedbc1bc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9564…5c8dbacked No | 4c | 8,488$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…f068backed No | 5c | 4,996$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…9ed6backed No | 5c | 3,488$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.57 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…591cbacked No | 5c | 1,598$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 3c | 618.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.57 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 3c | 565.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 72c | 508.8$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 370.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 4c | 316.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.36 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 76c | 308.55$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 68c | 299.97$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdc…e345backed No | 4c | 233.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked No | 11c | 228.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes | 6c | 207.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +314.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 206.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 34c | 200.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked No | 51c | 197.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 168.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…07b1backed Yes | 45c | 98.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 79.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 71.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 67c | 69.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 71c | 68.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…6e9dbacked No | 16c | 65.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…8d99backed No | 75c | 65.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 17c | 59.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dba…0962backed Yes | 52c | 56.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 37c | 55.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 67c | 51.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 39c | 50.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4f…8127backed Yes | 26c | 46.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +287.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 59c | 46.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 46.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 73c | 44.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…9c69backed Yes | 31c | 44.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e33…d6b8backed Yes | 28c | 41.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed No | 75c | 39.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 36.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8283…828abacked No | 74c | 35.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 33.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 59c | 32.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 32.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…cb65backed No | 75c | 31.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…9fb7backed No | 73c | 30.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3e…5f8dbacked No | 54c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c4…dc6cbacked No | 55c | 26.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 48c | 25.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 67c | 24.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 63c | 20.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 75c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa808…74f1backed No | 71c | 16.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…fda8backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.