Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa35e1d42fb421505e1a607dfcc8f7e40428a92dc2feab65e62d0764212ecf29b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $571,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $611,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $571,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 399 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 40c | 31,913$12,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,043.21 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 79c | 25,195$19,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,285.21 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 28c | 25,052$7,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,028.43 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked No | 8c | 10,613$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.34 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 29c | 8,620$2,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,521.48 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 58c | 8,610$5,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,576.7 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 66c | 6,644$4,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,282.02 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 6,370$4,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.49 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 39c | 6,000$2,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,686.75 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…ed88backed No | 78c | 5,473$4,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,241.72 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked No | 5c | 5,428$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.7 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 49c | 5,320$2,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,628.73 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 42c | 4,600$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,686.78 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 72c | 4,591$3,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.71 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 12c | 4,550$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.29 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 37c | 4,270$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,704.12 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 43c | 4,082$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,306.79 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 54c | 3,931$2,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826.92 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 60c | 3,845$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.83 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed No | 2c | 3,627$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed No | 59c | 3,440$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.76 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 79c | 3,438$2,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.08 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 19c | 3,214$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.16 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…c16bbacked Yes | 37c | 3,120$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,978.39 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 35c | 2,989$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.1 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 42c | 2,974$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.52 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 38c | 2,894$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.95 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 2,892$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.29 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 67c | 2,723$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.96 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 18c | 2,596$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,140.18 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d9…0940backed Yes | 40c | 2,519$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 52c | 2,346$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.41 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 66c | 2,326$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.97 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 57c | 2,175$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.5 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 59c | 2,103$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.73 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 41c | 2,083$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.4 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked No | 26c | 2,036$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.57 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 64c | 2,004$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.08 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 36c | 2,003$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.76 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 66c | 2,000$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.69 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 59c | 1,800$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.27 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,777$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked No | 15c | 1,764$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.55 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 28c | 1,728$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.62 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 65c | 1,627$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.23 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 7c | 1,579$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.03 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x673a…e805backed Yes | 45c | 1,561$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 56c | 1,559$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.22 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…6659backed Yes | 53c | 1,533$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked No | 27c | 1,456$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.62 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed No | 23c | 1,361$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 68c | 1,332$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.5 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 34c | 1,315$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.99 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…2b42backed No | 67c | 1,309$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.15 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,300$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.08 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 41c | 1,300$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 71c | 1,132$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.33 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 44c | 1,126$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.77 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…fd0dbacked No | 17c | 1,105$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.54 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…01d9backed Yes | 53c | 1,100$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 37c | 1,084$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.85 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 53c | 1,054$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.12 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 44c | 1,046$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.72 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 22c | 1,031$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.04 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…e0b2backed Yes | 79c | 1,028$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.63 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 49c | 1,010$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.86 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.68 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 41c | 1,000$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.78 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 55c | 997.82$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.82 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…cba8backed Yes | 71c | 905.51$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.25 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 45c | 902.61$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…1039backed Yes | 20c | 894.01$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.01 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c2…6b54backed Yes | 52c | 887.12$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 36c | 879.08$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.6 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked No | 59c | 844$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.96 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 70c | 828.24$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.82 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd020…2d96backed No | 72c | 807.35$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 801.24$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.56 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 11c | 800$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 67c | 791.91$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.28 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 44c | 783.44$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.07 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…62c8backed No | 34c | 777.6$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.49 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 30c | 776.38$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.38 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 80c | 751.14$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.4 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 35c | 738.94$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.13 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…a34dbacked Yes | 31c | 732$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25e…f9c0backed Yes | 64c | 702.65$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.86 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…11ddbacked Yes | 44c | 700$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 52c | 663.47$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.3 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 58c | 663.09$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.76 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 39c | 614.53$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.97 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes | 77c | 613.19$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.38 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 33c | 600$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 36c | 600$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes | 47c | 550$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.5 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…6604backed Yes | 37c | 532$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.48 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 39c | 525.19$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.15 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked No | 63c | 506.27$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.44 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.