Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb868929f67c71f3aa1396fbe164643781e4636df31293ae7556a580dc40ef8d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $506,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $369,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $506,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 17c | 34,464$5,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,973.23 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 19c | 28,833$5,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,344.84 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 22c | 23,368$5,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,153.93 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…e688backed Yes | 48c | 15,191$7,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,296.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Yes | 12c | 10,041$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.26 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 9c | 9,267$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.29 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 38c | 8,476$3,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,247.31 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 24c | 6,121$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.25 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 50c | 6,000$2,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,977.54 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Yes | 11c | 5,950$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.76 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 5c | 5,774$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.38 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 38c | 5,712$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.07 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 42c | 5,504$2,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,326 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes | 33c | 5,000$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.6 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 4,930$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.94 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 72c | 4,607$3,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.46 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 25c | 4,591$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.17 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 32c | 4,314$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.59 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 8c | 4,137$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.26 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,868$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.29 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 29c | 3,393$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.95 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,371$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.22 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 55c | 3,345$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.23 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 58c | 3,276$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.15 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,030$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.87 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 13c | 2,963$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.4 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 16c | 2,905$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.98 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,737$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.16 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 41c | 2,707$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.74 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 8c | 2,620$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 19c | 2,592$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.47 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 40c | 2,502$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.31 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 13c | 2,385$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.49 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…c16bbacked Yes | 49c | 2,337$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.34 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,241$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.16 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 35c | 2,124$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.25 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked Yes | 32c | 2,091$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.34 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,087$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.52 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…62c8backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.99 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5424…b09bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,964$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 76c | 1,827$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.9 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 54c | 1,823$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.46 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed No | 79c | 1,663$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.21 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2080…6d80backed Yes | 17c | 1,572$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.03 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 8c | 1,518$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 27c | 1,382$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.82 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked No | 54c | 1,336$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 7c | 1,278$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 11c | 1,277$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 19c | 1,260$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.94 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 1,260$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.91 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 44c | 1,200$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.11 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,143$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.43 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 37c | 1,110$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…01d9backed Yes | 31c | 1,100$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.67 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 53c | 1,056$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.76 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f6…9404backed Yes | 15c | 1,055$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.54 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 1,015$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 43c | 1,000$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 54c | 942.64$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.13 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 928.08$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.87 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 42c | 900.26$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.12 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 18c | 894.75$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.45 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…ad5bbacked Yes | 34c | 886.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 40c | 860.45$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.31 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 44c | 809.91$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 5c | 791.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 783.17$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.55 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…11ddbacked Yes | 38c | 699.98$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.99 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…57d2backed Yes | 12c | 679.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…94adbacked Yes | 8c | 664.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 648$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…93eebacked Yes | 32c | 633.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 18c | 613.63$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.29 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 26c | 611.89$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 600$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 586.38$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.65 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 53c | 569.58$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.88 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes | 46c | 568.82$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.45 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 567.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.54 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 58c | 554.11$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.06 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 20c | 550$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes | 47c | 549.98$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.49 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 29c | 521.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef5…4969backed No | 77c | 518.94$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 71cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 18c | 512.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.