Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3968338828b3854f96bc3126192f3dac048841da982b2841b1074094d20b909e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $585,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $444,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $585,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes | 0c | 86,635$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 32,821$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.12 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 4c | 14,329$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.79 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 14,000$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.57 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,656$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.72 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 0c | 10,315$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 1c | 9,956$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 6c | 9,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 2c | 7,154$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.79 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 6,986$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 3c | 6,923$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.44 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Yes | 2c | 6,917$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,736$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 7c | 6,629$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 2c | 5,994$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…6716backed Yes | 0c | 5,780$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,474$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.77 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 1c | 4,347$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 2c | 4,240$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 4c | 4,207$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.71 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,176$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,050$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.67 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x673a…e805backed Yes | 1c | 3,958$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 4c | 3,470$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,154$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…4a98backed Yes | 6c | 2,841$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +219.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 2,691$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.41 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 4c | 2,636$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 2,284$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,132$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…1039backed Yes | 6c | 2,112$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 8c | 1,966$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 1,875$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,864$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 135 | 17.8%24 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 6c | 1,829$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…f02ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 1,660$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…bfd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,546$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4f…d87fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,413$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,307$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5055…b09bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,210$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…2e8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,185$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,090$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 1,068$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe380…70e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,014$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,003$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…e1ebbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes | 5c | 898$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…3059backed Yes | 4c | 857.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 4c | 852$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 101 | 14.9%15 W · 86 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a52…94cabacked Yes | 4c | 780.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 759.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcddc…217cbacked Yes | 3c | 756.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…e986backed Yes | 1c | 750.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 5c | 745.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 7c | 670.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 10c | 662$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes | 6c | 629$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…11ddbacked Yes | 4c | 601.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 176 | 5.1%9 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…68cabacked Yes | 5c | 498.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 10c | 488.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 9c | 437.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 7c | 357.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…6883backed Yes | 5c | 351.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…659bbacked Yes | 4c | 334$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 6c | 310.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b30…d326backed Yes | 6c | 308.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb7…94c8backed Yes | 3c | 305.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 11c | 276.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4261…8d5bbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 8c | 249.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…50fabacked Yes | 6c | 234.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…3eccbacked Yes | 9c | 229.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…785abacked Yes | 8c | 221.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…e28cbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…e133backed Yes | 7c | 218.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03d…243bbacked Yes | 11c | 209.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7148…967bbacked Yes | 5c | 206.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 189.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 14c | 181.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 168.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc20c…9cd2backed Yes | 11c | 159.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 11c | 102.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.