Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76ffe3193eeecfaecbf0d32a539ad3c4883e97cbc810d7ebec323442659fef04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $414,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $281,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 37,687$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295.14 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes | 1c | 23,981$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.51 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 23,499$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 22,637$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.85 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 11,957$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 1c | 10,006$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 11c | 7,908$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.64 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405d…74b1backed Yes | 1c | 5,097$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 2c | 5,026$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.51 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,739$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 4,482$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 13c | 4,474$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.31 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 1c | 4,431$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 7c | 3,839$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,023$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 14c | 3,000$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.95 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 15c | 2,963$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.2 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 2c | 2,926$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,774$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.45 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590f…79b3backed Yes | 2c | 2,760$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 3c | 2,700$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 2,634$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.18 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 1c | 2,464$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 10c | 2,300$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 11c | 2,192$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.03 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 9c | 1,976$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.93 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 11c | 1,819$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,800$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 1,691$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.31 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc53…7623backed Yes | 3c | 1,655$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,651$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 6c | 1,480$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 12c | 1,448$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 1c | 1,379$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 8c | 1,343$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,320$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.84 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,289$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…ad5bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,280$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,274$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 25c | 1,124$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.24 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 1,084$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c2…6b54backed Yes | 3c | 1,067$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 75c | 1,064$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.45 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 71c | 978.5$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.48 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Yes | 2c | 961.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae0d…7df9backed Yes | 12c | 851.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 850$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…01d9backed Yes | 31c | 799.96$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…3a01backed Yes | 3c | 758.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 7c | 733.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 12c | 731.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…11ddbacked Yes | 10c | 699.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 12c | 600$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes | 30c | 572.26$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 22c | 550$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes | 5c | 549.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 30c | 482.63$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.79 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 3c | 460.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 11c | 430.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb82…b721backed Yes | 10c | 430$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 4c | 382.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…a3c1backed Yes | 4c | 376.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 5c | 345.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 3c | 341.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…bad8backed Yes | 29c | 339.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…d019backed Yes | 7c | 337$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 11.5%9 W · 69 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd560…1200backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8134…305fbacked Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 5c | 286$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e78backed No | 74c | 241.07$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51e3…24ffbacked Yes | 12c | 220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…e28cbacked Yes | 15c | 210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe22…7aabbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…9f53backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 28c | 199.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed Yes | 32c | 195.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb1…fa88backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes | 30c | 182.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…3eccbacked Yes | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…2152backed Yes | 10c | 162.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…c484backed Yes | 13c | 150.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 30c | 150.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…7e5abacked No | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…2136backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +159%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 139.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 12c | 130.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…cba8backed Yes | 26c | 120.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.