Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd49affc26f3e335a468f571146bd0e17af00a6b0e7c20be1bfa6673105f9e714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 11c | 1,210$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.72 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 12c | 863.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.19 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…28e0backed Yes | 4c | 843.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 20c | 735.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 25c | 703.27$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.83 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 12c | 636.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 597.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 448.87$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 434.01$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 21c | 412.32$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.57 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 43c | 410.21$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.91 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 15c | 388.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.61 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 30c | 380.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.73 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 4c | 350.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.14 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 17c | 333.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.38 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 45c | 317.87$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 10c | 313.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.52 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…37a5backed No | 3c | 295.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 13c | 285.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.53 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 18c | 269.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c37…fa6ebacked No | 79c | 263.21$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 12c | 229.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.3 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…f6f1backed Yes | 80c | 221.84$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 52c | 208.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 6c | 198.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.73 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 5c | 195.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.02 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 14c | 193.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.98 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 182$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 11c | 173.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…b1d1backed Yes | 11c | 173.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…e7a4backed Yes | 10c | 161.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 29c | 158.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 14c | 145.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…c236backed Yes | 80c | 144.95$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…3cdbbacked Yes | 20c | 143.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 133.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 47c | 125.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 79c | 114.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 49c | 112.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 14c | 106.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 52c | 105.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 41c | 95.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…7060backed Yes | 12c | 90.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b98…2748backed Yes | 17c | 89.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 63c | 86.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 19c | 81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 59c | 72.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 67.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x536c…1c05backed No | 79c | 60.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 70c | 59.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 23c | 52.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 36.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 43c | 33.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…3e1dbacked Yes | 72c | 30.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…5906backed Yes | 75c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 59c | 22.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 71c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 60c | 21.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…ca41backed No | 68c | 21.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 54c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 59c | 19.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0173…d05dbacked No | 67c | 19.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked Yes | 78c | 16.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 72c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.