Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdf07a4af64e0996b535181289a6a5626fd8f4c732b40e248b472bc4e21a505a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,518$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 4c | 851.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 2c | 789$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…79e3backed Yes | 2c | 478.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 418.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 336.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 227.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 66c | 217.72$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 12c | 210.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 26c | 209.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…73babacked Yes | 34c | 162.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 65c | 159.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 41c | 147.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 142.16$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 21c | 136.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 36c | 125.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…1167backed Yes | 36c | 111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 110.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked Yes | 14c | 107.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 13c | 96.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 55c | 73.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 35c | 69.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 36c | 64.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 64c | 62.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 60c | 58.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 69c | 55.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 33c | 55.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 53.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 60c | 53.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…6441backed No | 66c | 45.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…9059backed Yes | 50c | 42.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…a2acbacked No | 67c | 36.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 35.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 34c | 34.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f7…001dbacked Yes | 39c | 32.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 64c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…1b0cbacked Yes | 47c | 30.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 36c | 28.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…ffa1backed No | 58c | 25.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 77c | 24.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 70c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 59c | 24.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae7…10d5backed No | 67c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…ba7fbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 54c | 19.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 64c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 80c | 12.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.