Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9debf80e02d7f3c4d4dc66b3c3b8a13d4089c9bb89abf9ccbc5971b7f9bc741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 1c | 6,634$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b98…2748backed Yes | 1c | 1,787$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 20c | 1,162$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.72 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 518.31$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.14 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 499.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…f362backed Yes | 4c | 475.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 425.84$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 416.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 19c | 393.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 64c | 392.57$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.29 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 54c | 324.3$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.16 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 309.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 221.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes | 5c | 203.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 70c | 197.67$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 39c | 196.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.09 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 196.49$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 24c | 193.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…4478backed No | 49c | 191.1$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 185.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 25c | 179.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 164.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 56c | 155.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 18c | 150.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 51c | 134.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 40c | 134.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 55c | 118.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 116.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 13c | 104.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 31c | 103.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 67c | 96.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 25c | 94.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…3ebebacked Yes | 46c | 84.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 54c | 71.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…3ee4backed Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 17c | 66.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 74c | 59.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ea…1e83backed Yes | 32c | 58.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +90%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 34c | 56.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 53c | 54.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 54.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 50c | 53.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 42c | 53.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 35c | 51.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 37c | 50.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed Yes | 27c | 49.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 43c | 48.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 45c | 45.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked Yes | 56c | 44.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 43c | 43.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a22…399cbacked No | 53c | 43.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 44c | 42.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 30c | 39.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 35c | 38.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 53c | 38.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 53c | 37.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b0…e6aabacked Yes | 51c | 37.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…c58fbacked No | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…7191backed No | 73c | 34.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 43c | 32.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 46c | 30.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 66c | 29.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 60c | 29.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 71c | 26.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed No | 68c | 25.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 70c | 24.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…3e19backed No | 57c | 21.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f7…001dbacked Yes | 57c | 20.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 69c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…ba7fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…9aa1backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 68cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf466…fce0backed No | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…91cdbacked Yes | 65c | 16.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 74c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.