TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6a9f…c209

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Lol, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 55 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.43
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$32.97
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$67.6
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+67.8%+$8.08
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$320.9
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$17.47
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+150.4%+$147.4
Will José Antonio Kast come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+26.6%+$33.6
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+67.1%+$116.4
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.77
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.92
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+88.2%+$51.54
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+31.3%+$5.73
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+64.3%+$35.22
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$51.6
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$60.28
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$125.99
All 19 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.03
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$18
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$19
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$13.2
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winnerbacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$11.1
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.4
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$9
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3)backed Vivo Keyd Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$18
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+166.7%+$25
LoL: KT Rolster vs Movistar KOI (BO1)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+37%+$18.9
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+37%+$5.4
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+31.9%+$31.1
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.19
All 16 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NBA to pass Luka Doncic’s “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge”?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$21
Lakers vs. 76ersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+36.1%+$5.3
Lakers vs. Celticsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$161.04
LeBron 10+ point streak broken this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+100%+$11.5
Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$19.15
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+37%+$5.4
Spread: Lakers (-10.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$11.3
Clippers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+45.2%+$21.8
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$35.4
Lakers vs. Jazzbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+27.6%+$17.3
Heat vs. 76ersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+47.1%+$6.4
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+85.2%+$9.2
Rockets vs. Cavaliersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+44.9%+$9.3
Knicks vs. Jazzbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$111.4
Warriors vs. Pelicansbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST+29.9%+$26.03
Nets vs. 76ersbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$31.05
All 16 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+42.9%+$12.68
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+38.1%+$53.55
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+60.8%+$15.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+58.7%+$11.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,680Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+35.2%+$591.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lions vs. Coltsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+28.2%+$31.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.