TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Venezuelaof USA, Venezuela
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,241,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,241,724 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 516 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x59a0…9a09backed Venezuela31c320,527$99,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221,163.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked USA69c164,870$113,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,760.16650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed USA55c107,077$59,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,14231039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Venezuela32c103,736$33,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,140.472437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x618f…92adbacked USA27c100,000$26,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,831.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed USA67c72,314$48,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,460.973740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Venezuela31c54,422$16,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,551.253150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x034b…b22bbacked USA69c27,657$19,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,0832650%13 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked USA68c22,425$15,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,161.5411456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2b…f091backed USA51c22,000$11,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,316.111353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Venezuela31c15,400$4,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,592.4846547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Venezuela33c15,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0503554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0071…9e4dbacked Venezuela79c14,754$11,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,034.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked USA37c13,848$5,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,087.754555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Venezuela32c13,764$4,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,359.58757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+21.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed USA70c13,103$9,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,172.231,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed USA69c13,085$9,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,028.8323351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Venezuela33c12,707$4,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,513.375149%25 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Venezuela34c12,627$4,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,376.815959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Venezuela31c11,781$3,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,128.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Venezuela33c11,413$3,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,659.161136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed USA27c10,976$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.5985235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed USA67c10,658$7,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,140.8484049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed USA0c9,992$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0729446.6%137 W · 157 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed USA68c9,559$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,50024551.8%127 W · 118 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed USA24c8,988$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.4596133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd069…d068backed Venezuela45c8,972$4,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,944.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca28…54a7backed USA68c7,184$4,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,885.17875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed USA67c6,656$4,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,478.965244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked USA70c5,957$4,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,151.3620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed USA32c5,823$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.7821842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed USA68c5,405$3,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,654.861,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked USA69c5,272$3,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,637.681741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked USA25c5,054$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.821,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed USA69c5,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4502951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6431…ab69backed Venezuela62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a2…9ac5backed Venezuela32c4,696$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,193.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Venezuela33c4,500$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0151136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x031d…77e1backed USA71c4,392$3,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,115862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ec…21a0backed Venezuela49c4,099$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed USA69c3,623$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50019053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Venezuela40c3,537$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.2941643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed USA19c3,503$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.992242.7%6 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd022…3834backed USA49c3,457$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661b…17babacked USA62c3,226$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9028…540dbacked Venezuela33c3,088$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f67…a203backed USA69c2,899$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f70…e184backed Venezuela35c2,858$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+186.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed USA65c2,822$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.147753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d61…1938backed Venezuela32c2,804$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Venezuela34c2,703$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd5…09c2backed USA69c2,681$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe7…820fbacked USA69c2,640$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed USA38c2,638$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Venezuela31c2,593$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.146350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Venezuela43c2,542$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.546558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked USA67c2,500$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,67511125.2%28 W · 83 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5668…eababacked USA44c2,250$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9998351.8%43 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…95e2backed USA2c2,187$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.94185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-66.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed USA43c2,176$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93915550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed USA69c2,109$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.381241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa928…bbaabacked USA48c2,055$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.253857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed USA68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36091749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed USA34c1,740$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.210930.3%33 W · 76 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca4…51cebacked Venezuela32c1,637$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.26100%6 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+99.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Venezuela31c1,613$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.971,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed USA67c1,596$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.6532152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6332…5a1abacked Venezuela76c1,595$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80e8…3b74backed Venezuela32c1,557$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.65850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…1279backed Venezuela32c1,500$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0201100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd74…f726backed Venezuela32c1,456$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+134.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…de88backed Venezuela33c1,449$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+411%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked USA68c1,409$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.343748.6%18 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a20…b23ebacked USA59c1,368$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.1742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Venezuela72c1,361$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.641154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3c…6f42backed Venezuela75c1,347$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a89…8e52backed Venezuela38c1,328$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Venezuela33c1,312$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.621136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed USA36c1,267$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.5212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Venezuela49c1,166$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.4916725.1%42 W · 125 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed USA39c1,142$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.295040%20 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed USA68c1,117$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.5259549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe55a…da97backed Venezuela33c1,030$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Venezuela33c1,002$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.181338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Venezuela33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6707048.6%34 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Venezuela33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6709021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed USA38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Venezuela38c989.37$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.829344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf473…0f60backed USA26c926.27$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked USA41c920.01$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.836749.3%33 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Venezuela71c917.02$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.022638.5%10 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-33.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1ede…2de3backed USA68c903.72$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.531770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Venezuela64c883.11$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.891,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed USA70c882$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.428049.6%139 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed USA68c875.96$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x750c…d430backed USA66c845.48$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.013357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a38…82f5backed USA18c833.42$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked USA69c832.61$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.550751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed USA39c819.91$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.4214039.3%55 W · 85 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Venezuela44c816.33$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.3313461.9%83 W · 51 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.