TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,127,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,346,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,127,337 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 839 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ae5…8342backed Heat53c174,683$92,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,101.191346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed 76ers21c113,106$23,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,639.9925925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed 76ers49c88,655$43,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,234.234456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Heat63c79,836$50,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,245.7134062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked 76ers50c72,563$36,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,139.0687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 76ers35c37,975$13,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,159.465,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed 76ers49c36,345$17,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,809.125248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Heat63c35,767$22,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,222.711,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed 76ers16c35,000$5,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,687.512529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Heat51c32,444$16,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,040.5924650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat49c30,000$14,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,30038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed 76ers49c28,069$13,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,753.8617554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked 76ers50c27,414$13,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,644.2769852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked 76ers29c25,843$7,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,528.6526038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 76ers51c23,552$12,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,075.972,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat49c20,368$9,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,426.3274748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Heat49c20,000$9,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,15014853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed 76ers38c19,675$7,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,439.218744.8%39 W · 48 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers49c18,936$9,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,233.579,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9609…29bdbacked 76ers50c16,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 76ers18c15,940$2,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,891.091,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Heat51c15,552$7,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,620.4411558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c06…db24backed 76ers29c15,471$4,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,527.065933.9%20 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+60.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed 76ers50c14,998$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5003432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers49c12,333$6,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,005.83,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be6…2006backed Heat53c10,921$5,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,111.492580%20 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed 76ers49c10,664$5,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,185.582,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Heat50c10,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,05021951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked 76ers50c10,000$5,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,049.9931445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Heat48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.9534645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed 76ers36c9,999$3,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,558.395925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8605…750fbacked 76ers51c9,819$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat51c9,520$4,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,664.662,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 76ers51c9,127$4,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,620.422,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Heat52c8,458$4,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,059.9217354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed 76ers33c8,039$2,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,620.71,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked 76ers49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9201,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Heat49c7,843$3,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,999.8513455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 76ers31c7,670$2,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,409.882,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed 76ers50c7,500$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7506152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Heat71c7,378$5,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.3519388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed 76ers33c7,215$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.191,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Heat50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50013345.9%61 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5fe…5962backed 76ers19c6,520$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.993644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed 76ers31c6,135$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90040041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d00…fe76backed 76ers50c5,875$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,937.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf15…2187backed Heat50c5,869$2,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,934.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat50c5,543$2,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,744.091,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcd…0aa5backed 76ers47c5,360$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,503.121741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed 76ers1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5064517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Heat50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Heat48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.9676850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Heat52c4,808$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,307.713355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8892…99f9backed Heat49c4,660$2,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,376.95988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick59cpaid+50.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2a8…45adbacked 76ers50c4,653$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.991952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers30c4,568$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed 76ers47c4,500$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,11547748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27c9…2278backed 76ers41c4,278$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.161747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50fd…cd30backed 76ers52c4,200$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1842740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Heat66c4,012$2,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4938…e857backed Heat49c3,878$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5409…3e53backed 76ers52c3,846$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers19c3,839$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.264,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c4…48d7backed Heat49c3,800$1,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9384165.9%27 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb31d…0586backed 76ers51c3,800$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,937.992133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Heat49c3,595$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.2355346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed 76ers2c3,510$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.38820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Heat69c3,406$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.6947359.2%280 W · 193 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed 76ers38c3,300$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25411242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4160…ade4backed 76ers43c3,093$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.994429.5%13 W · 31 L-9.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-53.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Heat49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.2231044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed 76ers52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed 76ers50c3,000$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.611,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Heat52c2,958$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.6919136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked 76ers28c2,923$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.681,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat51c2,718$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.562,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf58…d161backed Heat51c2,642$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.22254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Heat48c2,591$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.0578445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299c…3ae7backed 76ers22c2,425$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.74911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Heat73c2,417$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.1729458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Heat48c2,407$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.191,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed 76ers44c2,219$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.8348046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8287…059ebacked 76ers49c2,088$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.123735.1%13 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Heat48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04011649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Heat49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed 76ers45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9003441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed 76ers48c2,000$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.3418047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked 76ers47c1,997$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.681,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd515…d9a6backed Heat49c1,993$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.31771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e73…b757backed 76ers52c1,993$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.23825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x848a…bb13backed 76ers52c1,988$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.61560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf506…9912backed Heat49c1,979$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.413100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+86.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Heat51c1,979$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.9838649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Heat51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7810852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed 76ers50c1,926$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.979256.5%52 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed 76ers33c1,867$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.2327917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea3…d599backed Heat61c1,850$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.074100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed 76ers51c1,741$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.9123135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dd1…8cadbacked 76ers26c1,725$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+67.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85f9…58f0backed Heat52c1,724$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.471163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.