NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. 76ers: O/U 240.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ecc3644bf428dd07f590fa825dfde7080e6e00e81a1be3316d1e74672489993

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,235
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,491

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,235 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x43fd…99a7backed Over	52c	7,692$4,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,692.16	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-3.6wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Under	49c	7,000$3,430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,430	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	51c	6,000$3,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,060	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,450	112	42.9%48 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	48c	4,609$2,218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,217.98	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	4,449$2,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,147.34	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Under	49c	4,161$2,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,038.89	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	51c	3,910$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,909.66	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over	49c	3,333$1,633 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,699.83	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	49c	2,341$1,139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,202.65	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Over	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960.78	177	44.1%78 W · 99 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over	52c	1,938$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$938.08	369	43.4%160 W · 209 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	52c	1,734$901 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$832.54	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a4…ea47backed Under	52c	1,298$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Under	52c	963.46$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	50c	800$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$404	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Over	49c	795.92$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405.92	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	53c	788.18$414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$374	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	49c	788$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.12	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	51c	704$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$346.03	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Under	51c	600$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306	103	49.5%51 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfb9…2396backed Under	51c	600$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37f1…d157backed Over	49c	600$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b6…da08backed Under	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa817…6313backed Over	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	48c	494.23$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.23	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x059e…4a2ebacked Under	50c	474$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	48c	444$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.12	226	56.6%128 W · 98 L	+13.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed20…e0efbacked Under	52c	421.65$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.26	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.25per pick	45cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa763…709ebacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	198	45.5%90 W · 108 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Under	49c	399.99$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.99	102	46.1%47 W · 55 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	51c	375$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.75	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Under	45c	325$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.5	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-21%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	207	54.1%112 W · 95 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over	50c	280$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	49c	260.02$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.79	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	260	44.6%116 W · 144 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69dc…336dbacked Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	129	50.4%65 W · 64 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	244	46.7%114 W · 130 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb542…1424backed Over	49c	163.27$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.27	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+26%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	51c	150$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.5	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	50c	102$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.49	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4a…5a1abacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+74.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc29a…8776backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a75…e444backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6169backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ab…f2a9backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	152	47.4%72 W · 80 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd856…f1f6backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f2…9b10backed Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Under	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	23.4%85 W · 279 L	-15.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Under	24c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Over	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	147	53.1%78 W · 69 L	+8.6wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Under	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	194	51.5%100 W · 94 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	49c	48$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.72	876	47.5%416 W · 460 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87f5…86a8backed Under	60c	43.33$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	39c	42.42$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	849	57.6%489 W · 360 L	-52.1wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5a3…8248backed Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd35…c85ebacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	47.9%35 W · 38 L	-4.7wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40c5…0decbacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1da6…53edbacked Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over	48c	33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.16	1,028	48.5%499 W · 529 L	+27.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over	49c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.48	312	50.3%157 W · 155 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc633…b4e7backed Over	50c	29.9$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.95	150	45.3%68 W · 82 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa905…732dbacked Under	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	47c	28.3$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7972…930fbacked Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	-12.3wins	-0.15per pick	63cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over	49c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.77	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c27…c99fbacked Over	50c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	51c	21.57$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.57	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	236	51.7%122 W · 114 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	370	37.3%138 W · 232 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa798…4240backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	65	58.5%38 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. 76ers: O/U 240.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event