NBA · resolved market

Spread: 76ers (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8042da11a115daad59a4196e36709afa54450a11509c8aacb78b68a049252b6a

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof 76ers, Heat
Resolved: Nov 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,201
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,201 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers	46c	3,617$1,667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,666.83	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Heat	54c	2,554$1,375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,179.55	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3f…bb7cbacked 76ers	49c	2,041$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Heat	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$940	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Heat	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$980	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 76ers	49c	1,605$782 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$781.85	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Heat	57c	974.56$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$419.56	184	52.7%97 W · 87 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers	47c	579.89$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.55	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Heat	54c	412$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.52	208	38%79 W · 129 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed 76ers	46c	411.67$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.06	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked 76ers	46c	402.52$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.16	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Heat	53c	400$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188	207	54.1%112 W · 95 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked 76ers	46c	384.63$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.44	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Heat	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf58d…914abacked Heat	53c	377.36$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.36	138	60.1%83 W · 55 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f5f…2348backed 76ers	49c	308.16$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-5.4wins	-0.19per pick	57cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa306…d699backed Heat	53c	250$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.5	42	76.2%32 W · 10 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	69cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Heat	53c	237.51$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.63	160	61.3%98 W · 62 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed 76ers	47c	201.5$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.52	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88ce…d898backed Heat	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	10	50%5 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25b6…42dcbacked 76ers	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5dd…490bbacked Heat	53c	190$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.3	126	54.8%69 W · 57 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf0…de6dbacked Heat	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	10	40%4 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x307b…d158backed Heat	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x068f…4594backed Heat	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed 76ers	47c	163$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.61	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a60…50e1backed 76ers	50c	139.34$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.67	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-4.8wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed 76ers	43c	120$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.6	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed 76ers	47c	119.99$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.39	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed 76ers	46c	111.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.52	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked 76ers	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	377	50.4%190 W · 187 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed 76ers	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Heat	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Heat	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d23…b5a2backed Heat	55c	90.88$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.07	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers	47c	80.19$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.69	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed 76ers	47c	68$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.62	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb203…8e45backed Heat	53c	66.04$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.04	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed 76ers	48c	63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aed…bd17backed 76ers	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-4.3wins	-0.13per pick	55cpaid	-30%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8328…0a5cbacked 76ers	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	368	42.4%156 W · 212 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed 76ers	46c	60.87$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked 76ers	47c	53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked 76ers	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	336	50.6%170 W · 166 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9419…a40fbacked Heat	55c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	75c	47$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5515…451dbacked Heat	54c	46.46$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.46	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	65cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers	45c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.45	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d3…a973backed Heat	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	102	61.8%63 W · 39 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c54…f00ebacked Heat	57c	43.86$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.86	60	61.7%37 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	66cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed 76ers	44c	36.77$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.18	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e76…ee47backed Heat	55c	36.38$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.38	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	49cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dd3…8254backed Heat	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	49	65.3%32 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed 76ers	49c	34.69$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa9…259ebacked Heat	53c	33.96$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.96	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a7…b64dbacked Heat	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-7.1wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d4e…8163backed Heat	53c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2674…40f5backed Heat	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21e2…c233backed 76ers	47c	25.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked Heat	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: 76ers (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event