NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. 76ers: O/U 241.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f8aa877007931c5407ac1052fd55531d305151089c2cef44db4bf6cc6f6eb34

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,240

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,683 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x01b4…372ebacked Under	1c	8,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	298	10.4%31 W · 267 L	+22.5wins	+0.08per pick	3cpaid	+230.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under	49c	1,419$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	400	41.5%166 W · 234 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	53c	1,392$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.67	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf763…414fbacked Over	47c	1,205$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$634.95	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Under	53c	1,000$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	154	61.7%95 W · 59 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over	52c	896.3$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.96	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	51c	894.16$454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.96	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over	48c	760.42$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$395.42	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	47c	451.81$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.37	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Over	47c	299.11$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.53	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	43c	235.06$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.23	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f91…7c76backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	98	52%51 W · 47 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	51c	183.67$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.67	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	45c	163.9$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.75	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked Under	54c	106$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	336	50.6%170 W · 166 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Under	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	47c	90$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.7	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeecc…6930backed Over	66c	60$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.3	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x096a…dfa3backed Under	52c	48$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Under	53c	47.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	930	36.5%339 W · 591 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Under	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	109	57.8%63 W · 46 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Under	38c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b1…e667backed Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aaf…749dbacked Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	55cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Under	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	39	69.2%27 W · 12 L	+5.6wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	47c	26.1$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.83	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f95…8e86backed Over	75c	14.73$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.69	62	56.5%35 W · 27 L	-8.6wins	-0.14per pick	70cpaid	-23%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. 76ers: O/U 241.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event