TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Knicks, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,934,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,129,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,934,739 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,564 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Knicks47c306,160$145,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145,0005952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked Magic50c243,660$122,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120,725.995151%26 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed72…b8b0backed Magic54c134,330$71,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,355.822245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks49c100,309$48,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,845.262,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Knicks50c95,563$47,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,781.3296447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8605…750fbacked Magic51c93,143$47,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,604.872657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic52c63,858$33,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,651.8987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Knicks49c61,324$30,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,048.7470147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic54c58,717$31,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,734.334,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Knicks26c56,797$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92e1…2ec3backed Knicks0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic53c50,000$26,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,5001,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Magic52c50,000$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,999.969851%50 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Magic53c47,653$25,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,398.2537557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Knicks49c45,439$22,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,261.624456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Knicks22c44,550$9,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,944.591,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks47c40,640$19,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,269.499,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Knicks55c39,900$22,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,030.9627251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Magic79c37,442$29,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,889.047869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Magic53c33,163$17,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,586.6515443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Magic61c32,945$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,944.9634062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf07…80c3backed Magic51c32,373$16,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,951.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Magic52c26,664$13,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,739.2144459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Knicks49c25,553$12,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,565.395925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Magic53c25,000$13,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,749.9914052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb90c…9a6abacked Knicks48c23,100$11,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0263234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Knicks46c22,923$10,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,5832,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Knicks51c22,500$11,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,483.9320253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0140…9028backed Magic46c22,000$10,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,8804544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae5…8342backed Magic53c21,804$11,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,345.971346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Knicks44c21,646$9,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,471.5285742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b40…d85ebacked Knicks3c20,545$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.35832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Knicks25c20,255$5,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,144.18863.6%56 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Magic52c20,000$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,60017554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Magic53c18,781$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,781.0111654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Knicks32c18,675$5,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,971.421,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic56c15,699$8,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,921.235,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Knicks48c15,555$7,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,466.3715952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Knicks47c15,436$7,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2555947.5%28 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Knicks58c15,326$8,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,826.152240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Knicks53c15,000$7,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,95038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Knicks49c14,983$7,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,363.6362541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Knicks46c14,858$6,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,818.037353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks48c14,704$6,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,997.583,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Magic66c14,267$9,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,907.1619388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Knicks48c12,555$6,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,020.642,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Knicks47c12,537$5,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,892.3959646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Magic52c12,480$6,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,014.7926038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Knicks0c11,389$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.064573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Knicks47c11,200$5,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,26411558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Knicks48c11,000$5,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,28025945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Knicks46c10,809$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Knicks40c10,801$4,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,312.171,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Knicks47c10,552$4,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,931.532,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Magic53c10,478$5,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,924.5413455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Knicks34c10,434$3,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,588.951,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Knicks50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00013743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked Magic53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7003177.4%24 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Knicks33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30023135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x656e…32a3backed Magic50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+107.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb230…3172backed Knicks51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Knicks47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7001533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Knicks3c10,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Knicks47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,699.9676850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Knicks6c9,972$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.1634645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Knicks39c8,888$3,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,506.031,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Knicks50c8,705$4,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,331.0248944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Knicks47c8,663$4,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,096.0244648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic45c8,588$3,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,689.358,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Knicks46c8,328$3,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,830.8259653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Knicks35c8,084$2,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,815.2881529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f1…4365backed Knicks51c8,000$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,080955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe187…b1b5backed Magic50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0003100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Knicks51c7,840$3,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,998.46352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9609…29bdbacked Knicks48c7,829$3,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,758633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17c1…a606backed Knicks47c7,390$3,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,473.32352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Knicks38c7,158$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,744.081145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Magic53c7,000$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,290.012,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic51c7,000$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,429.981,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Knicks60c6,867$4,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,087.3717441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e69…85d4backed Knicks1c6,694$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Knicks1c6,549$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.347211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Knicks50c6,107$3,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,053.520542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6c…d4dabacked Knicks48c5,946$2,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,874.093145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Knicks46c5,785$2,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,661.055850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c8…e7ebbacked Magic49c5,775$2,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x469e…462dbacked Knicks51c5,773$2,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,94410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Magic55c5,455$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.68846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x545f…bedebacked Magic55c5,397$2,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,428.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick61cpaid-55.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Magic78c5,027$3,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1065959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Magic54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d0…f32dbacked Magic51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+48.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Knicks48c4,750$2,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,29026247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9105…97f2backed Knicks46c4,565$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Knicks49c4,558$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,253.6535651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Magic66c4,543$3,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.1543051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Knicks49c4,500$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20547748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Knicks45c4,426$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020851.4%107 W · 101 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Knicks44c4,368$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.4115551%79 W · 76 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Knicks36c4,322$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.372,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.