NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa01757db56fbca7dc3dd67c6c299ef64dea9c5fb1050571616084cb592fc238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 7,861$3,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,555.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.19 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Over | 56c | 2,340$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.96 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd3…7bf6backed Under | 49c | 2,037$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 1,779$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.74 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 46c | 1,043$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Over | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Over | 56c | 399.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.99 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 395.44$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.87 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 391.54$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.08 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 325$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 42c | 273.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.72 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Over | 58c | 273.14$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.72 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 56c | 225$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed Over | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Over | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…bdc1backed Over | 52c | 195.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…6921backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 57c | 147.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 135$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…2c4ebacked Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…fb44backed Over | 53c | 93.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…45cebacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…55d3backed Under | 49c | 66.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…dfa3backed Under | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 47c | 42.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…f769backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…f320backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Under | 49c | 30.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 57c | 30.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5962backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…47aabacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…c5f3backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Over | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…7fe3backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…f59fbacked Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…26bbbacked Over | 57c | 21.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…d240backed Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Over | 52c | 19.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5this page
- Knicks vs. MagicMagic won
- Knicks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.