NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8caa1089e3cefde59bc4630d9b9decbfb61a2e1fc764900c451a7de1e3243448
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea27…19c6backed Under | 50c | 6,016$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 3,140$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.41 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Over | 54c | 2,935$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.08 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 50c | 2,334$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.32 | 605 | 49.8%301 W · 304 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 50c | 1,517$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.5 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 1,344$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 751.46$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 47c | 630$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.1 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 485$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 66c | 429$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.75 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5b…8411backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 387$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 204$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 55c | 134.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 40c | 116.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…51e2backed Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…5a06backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Over | 52c | 96.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…0decbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…60a4backed Over | 50c | 89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 75.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7f…0d6cbacked Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…dfa3backed Under | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf460…e5aabacked Over | 54c | 42.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…55d3backed Under | 52c | 41.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87cfbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…c5f3backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…af20backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 229.5this page
- Knicks vs. MagicMagic won
- Knicks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.