NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbe3239bb591610a6e79a554002ae0f6066337c077617787c099a4b034184e7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Knicks, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Knicks | 44c | 3,610$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.4 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Magic | 60c | 1,845$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.83 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Knicks | 45c | 1,830$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.49 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Magic | 55c | 1,761$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.6 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Knicks | 45c | 1,007$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 56c | 946.53$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 56c | 489.36$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.16 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73d…cbf8backed Magic | 59c | 318.51$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.59 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 52c | 254.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Knicks | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Knicks | 42c | 182$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Knicks | 44c | 179$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…e34dbacked Knicks | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Magic | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Knicks | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Magic | 58c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5962backed Magic | 53c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Magic | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Magic | 60c | 46.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Knicks | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…dfa3backed Knicks | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Magic | 57c | 27.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Magic | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)this page
- Knicks vs. MagicMagic won
- Knicks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.