NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20b0c5d151e4dcb036232f4a0b996c1557bde9370d32867eaeb9530935a83889
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Knicks, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Knicks | 47c | 5,408$2,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,542.45 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 53c | 3,692$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Knicks | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Magic | 56c | 2,005$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 52c | 1,459$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…5ca2backed Knicks | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1d…1e31backed Magic | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Magic | 56c | 1,040$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 52c | 869.59$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.26 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Knicks | 47c | 823$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.81 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Knicks | 47c | 822.03$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.3 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e6…cbd8backed Magic | 56c | 604$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.76 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks | 48c | 599$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.88 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Magic | 56c | 490$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Knicks | 45c | 440$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Knicks | 6c | 425.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Knicks | 44c | 282.74$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Knicks | 44c | 231.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Magic | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…3bc2backed Magic | 55c | 163.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Knicks | 44c | 149.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Knicks | 44c | 135.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Knicks | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Magic | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Magic | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Magic | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Knicks | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Knicks | 55c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Magic | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Magic | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Magic | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…1df6backed Magic | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…14efbacked Magic | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Magic | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…48b6backed Magic | 55c | 74.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Magic | 52c | 62.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Knicks | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Knicks | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Knicks | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4099…bbf5backed Knicks | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…dfa3backed Knicks | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Knicks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…40b5backed Magic | 56c | 37.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Knicks | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Knicks | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 49c | 33.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Magic | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)this page
- Knicks vs. MagicMagic won
- Knicks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.