TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Clippers vs. Lakers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Clippers, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,284,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,814,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,284,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,475 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Clippers27c927,843$248,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248,254.118333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Clippers30c819,509$249,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249,947.2715443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Clippers30c671,002$201,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,300.468148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Lakers73c516,832$377,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139,530.421,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Lakers70c285,689$199,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,706.792665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Lakers70c180,000$126,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,00014434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Lakers74c148,291$109,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,535.5213248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Lakers69c129,999$90,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,799.7620253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Lakers74c122,287$90,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,371.6759646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Lakers70c110,000$76,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,10059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Clippers30c100,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,999.891,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Lakers73c95,123$69,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,109.429336.6%34 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lakers69c94,347$65,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,859.682,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lakers70c79,695$55,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,815.322,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Lakers69c60,622$41,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,792.712334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4a…87d4backed Lakers70c60,000$41,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,199.973551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Clippers30c60,000$18,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,199.8723245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Clippers20c45,559$9,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,10025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Lakers69c43,434$30,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,370.2337557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Clippers30c40,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Lakers69c40,000$27,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,40017658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lakers70c40,000$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Lakers71c35,137$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,136.9134062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Clippers31c34,541$10,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,691.674748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Lakers69c32,900$22,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,198.998961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lakers77c32,016$24,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,414.585,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Lakers70c31,172$21,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,463.2947751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Lakers66c31,000$20,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,539.9948448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd595…b30bbacked Lakers70c30,000$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,0004748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers70c24,894$17,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,581.159,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lakers70c22,372$15,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,753.4369852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Clippers34c21,366$7,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,264.4810459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Clippers30c20,365$6,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,109.4624650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ca…ca43backed Lakers75c19,658$14,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,921.6911575.7%87 W · 28 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+16.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Lakers72c19,277$13,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,410.9326038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers70c19,252$13,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,780.551,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Lakers68c18,427$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,927.198863.6%56 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Lakers74c15,697$11,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,126.4127917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Lakers69c15,555$10,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,822.0515952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Lakers70c15,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5005350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd52…0001backed Lakers70c14,809$10,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,446.751662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Lakers68c14,500$9,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,64038434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Lakers70c14,186$9,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,255.7715551%79 W · 76 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Lakers69c13,578$9,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,176.475925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Lakers73c12,518$9,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,413.691,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Clippers34c12,478$4,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2493,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Clippers31c11,846$3,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,672.142142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Clippers26c11,461$2,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,950.9376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Lakers70c10,953$7,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,285.992753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8768…dd9bbacked Lakers71c10,899$7,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,160.713100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Lakers70c10,765$7,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,229.451553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Lakers71c10,490$7,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,042.0422457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers70c10,299$7,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.824,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Clippers29c10,231$2,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.8787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Lakers68c10,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20013345.9%61 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x089b…2193backed Clippers10c10,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05027731.4%87 W · 190 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Clippers30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9966853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Lakers69c10,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.9926637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Lakers68c9,739$6,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,106.5544459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x888c…e9ecbacked Clippers14c9,319$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.04742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+67.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Clippers31c8,781$2,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7228846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Lakers68c8,600$5,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,74014853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Clippers29c8,333$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.9931044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Lakers70c8,229$5,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,433.1544648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1467…51e3backed Lakers70c8,112$5,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,433.6310941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Lakers78c8,087$6,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.9147748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Clippers28c8,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.9921951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers70c7,998$5,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.485742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Lakers71c7,894$5,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,315.7648957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Clippers25c7,573$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.351,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Lakers71c7,500$5,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.9919048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Clippers30c7,500$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.976152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed Lakers71c7,414$5,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.941546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe931…0acabacked Clippers32c7,394$2,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,330540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Lakers72c6,944$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.4416848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Lakers75c6,740$5,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.0827152%141 W · 130 L-17.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Clippers9c6,694$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.52,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685e…6f30backed Lakers70c6,600$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,98010757.9%62 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Clippers30c6,162$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.7285344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Lakers70c6,137$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.828951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc13d…424ebacked Lakers72c6,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+43%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Clippers31c5,806$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80032151.7%166 W · 155 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Lakers70c5,714$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.295848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Clippers29c5,649$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.2724048.3%116 W · 124 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0e9…987ebacked Lakers69c5,543$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…9d23backed Clippers31c5,529$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1517…5b34backed Lakers73c5,255$3,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.152050%10 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Clippers29c5,210$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.0218142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Clippers29c5,200$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.9861835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb76c…a285backed Lakers68c5,114$3,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Clippers30c5,100$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5301,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1771…30a1backed Clippers32c5,094$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,63010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Clippers32c5,050$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Lakers70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe458…3436backed Lakers70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Clippers28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Clippers30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9945348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f6…0b51backed Clippers31c4,839$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Lakers68c4,836$3,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.4452460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Lakers64c4,803$3,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.3781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.